| Author (Person) | Kearns, Ian, Kulesa, Lukasz |
|---|---|
| Publisher | European Leadership Network |
| Series Title | Policy Brief |
| Series Details | August 2015 |
| Publication Date | 12/08/2015 |
| Content Type | Report |
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Over the 18 months in 2014 and 2015, against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, the relationship between Russia and the West has deteriorated considerably. One aspect of the confrontation, as previously documented by the ELN, has been a game of Russian-instigated dangerous brinkmanship which has resulted in many serious close military encounters between the forces of Russia and NATO and its partners over the last 15 months. Another aspect, however has been the increased scope and size of the military exercises conducted by both Russia and by NATO and its partners in the Euro-Atlantic area since the Ukraine crisis began. To assist the public and wider policy community in understanding the realities of this new and dangerous security environment in Europe, the ELN has prepared a short policy brief and two interactive maps presenting in detail the anatomy of two recent, large scale military exercises. The two exercises profiled are: +A Russian ‘snap exercise’ conducted in March 2015, which brought together 80,000 military personnel. Both exercises show that each side is training with the other side’s capabilities and most likely war plans in mind. Whilst spokespeople may maintain that these operations are targeted against hypothetical opponents, the nature and scale of them indicate otherwise: Russia is preparing for a conflict with NATO, and NATO is preparing for a possible confrontation with Russia. NATO responded on the 12 August 2015 by saying 'the European Leadership Network misleadingly puts NATO and Russian exercises on par. In fact, the Russian Ministry of Defence has announced over 4000 exercises for this year, which is over 10 times more than what NATO and Allies have planned in the same timeframe'. 'NATO military exercises are intended to enhance security and stability in Europe. All NATO military activities are proportionate, defensive, and fully in line with our international commitments'. ---- Separately the ELN: Task Force on Cooperation in Greater Europe, published on the 26 August 2015, a paper called 'Avoiding War in Europe: How to Reduce the Risk of a Military Encounter Between Russia and NATO' (see related url hyperlinks). The Task Force including former foreign and defence ministers from the U.K., Poland, Russia, Germany, Turkey and France expressed its concern over a possible military escalation in the crisis between Russia and the West and has called for a new agreement between NATO and Russia to prevent accidental incidents or miscalculations leading to an escalation of tension and even confrontation. |
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| Source Link | http://www.europeanleadershipnetwork.org/medialibrary/2015/08/07/ea2b8c22/Preparing%20for%20the%20Worst.pdf |
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| Subject Categories | Security and Defence |
| Countries / Regions | Europe, Russia |
