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Title: What if ... Conceivable crises: unpredictable in 2017, unmanageable in 2020?
Author: Gaub, Florence
Publisher: European Union Institute for Security Studies, 2017
Series/Date: Report No.34, June 2017
Source Origin: EU
Source Type: Report
ISBN: 978-92-9198-625-5
ISSN: 1830-9747
Notes: In a world increasingly shaped by unexpected events and developments – ranging from ‘strategic surprises’ like 9/11 or the Arab Spring to the unintended consequences of often well-meant decisions – trying to imagine contingencies that challenge current assumptions may well prove a useful exercise.

This Report presents a number of grey swan scenarios which are designed to help decision-makers think about possible responses to crises and how they can be prevented. They cover a wide variety of geographical and operational situations while never explicitly calling into question specific EU actions or policies – only general EU principles and interests.
Source URL: https://publications.europa.eu/s/dlxE
Homepage URL: http://www.iss.europa.eu/
Subjects:  18.2 - Common Foreign and Security Policy
 18.3 - Security and defence
Geographic Indicators:  European Union
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