Alternatives to a no-deal outcome in negotiations with the EU

Author (Corporate)
Series Title
Series Details No.CDP0039 (19.02.18)
Publication Date 19/02/2018
Content Type

This Debate Pack was compiled in advance of a Westminster Hall debate on the Alternatives to a no-deal outcome in negotiations with the EU held on the 21 February 2018.

Further information

The UK can leave the EU with or without a withdrawal agreement, but the UK Government has said it wants a smooth and orderly Brexit. Leaving the EU without an agreement would not be smooth or orderly.

If for whatever reason there was no withdrawal agreement by 29 March 2019, and no unanimous agreement to extend the two-year period, the EU Treaties would automatically cease to apply to the UK.

‘No deal’ would result in UK-EU trade being subject to general WTO rules, meaning increased barriers to trade in goods, with no preferential tariff agreement and possibly preventing some trade in services.

There would be no transitional period and possibly no other agreements with the EU on matters such as data sharing, aviation or customs co-operation. It would also mean significant uncertainty about all the other issues in the negotiations, such as citizens’ rights.

Leaving with no withdrawal agreement would not necessarily prevent the two sides from reaching future bilateral agreements on any or all of these matters. But on Brexit day the UK and the EU would not have concluded such agreements.

Both sides have said they want to avoid this, but it is still a possibility.

Possible ways of dealing with ‘no deal’ in March 2019 were:

+ Keep negotiating under Article 50 TEU
+ Revoke the withdrawal notification and maintain the status quo
+ ‘Softer’ Brexits
- Staying in the Single Market and Customs Union
- Comprehensive free trade agreement
- Agreed no deal
- Norway model (EEA)
- EFTA

Source Link http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CDP-2018-0039/CDP-2018-0039.pdf
Related Links
The Conversation, 26.02.18: The five alternatives to EU single market and customs union would all make UK poorer https://theconversation.com/the-five-alternatives-to-eu-single-market-and-customs-union-would-all-make-uk-poorer-92228
ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/
Chatham House: Expert Comment, 12.12.17: Finding a Sensible Brexit http://www.europeansources.info/record/finding-a-sensible-brexit/
Institute for Government, 2017: Brexit deal or no deal: where might we be on 30 March 2019? https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/brexit-deal-table-options-scenarios-2019-institute-for-government-web.pdf
UK: House of Commons Hansard: Debate: Westminster Hall 21.02.18: Leaving the EU: No-deal Alternatives https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2018-02-21/debates/78F28108-BA5E-46CC-9257-F83830A8930D/LeavingTheEUNo-DealAlternatives

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