European Economic Forecast. Spring 2020

Summary:

The European Commission published on 6 May 2020 its Spring economic forecast for the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone.

Further information:

The Spring 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy is to contract by a record 7¾% in 2020 and grow by 6¼% in 2021. The EU economy is forecast to contract by 7½% in 2020 and grow by around 6% in 2021. Growth projections for the European Union (EU) and euro area have been revised down by around nine percentage points compared to the Autumn 2019 Economic Forecast.

The European Commission sees the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic as a major shock for the global and EU economies, with very severe socio-economic consequences. Despite the policy response at both EU and national level, the EU economy appeared to be facing a a recession of historic proportions in 2020.

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Commentary and Analysis

Politico, 06/05/2020: The EU’s COVID-19 economic heart attack https://www.politico.eu/article/the-eus-covid-19-economic-heart-attack/

EPRS: Briefing, May 2020: Comparison of key figures in the 2020 Stability and Convergence Programmes and European Commission spring 2020 forecast https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document.html?reference=IPOL_BRI(2020)645744

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News

EurActiv, 05/05/2020: Commission expects Spanish economy to shrink 9.4% this year https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/commission-expects-spanish-economy-to-suffer-9-4-this-year/

The Irish Times, 06/05/2020: Ireland’s economy to contract by 8% this year, European Commission forecasts https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ireland-s-economy-to-contract-by-8-this-year-european-commission-forecasts-1.4246294

BBC News, 06/05/2020: Coronavirus: EU facing 'deep and uneven recession' https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52557191

The Guardian, 06/05/2020: Coronavirus threatens future of eurozone, Brussels warns https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/06/coronavirus-threatens-future-eurozone-brussels-economic-social-divisions-pandemic

Euronews, 06/05/2020: EU forecasts 'recession of historic proportions' this year https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/06/eu-forecasts-recession-of-historic-proportions-this-year

Reuters, 06/05/2020: Euro zone set for record recession, inflation to vanish-Commission https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN22I151

EurActiv, 06/05/2020: Coronavirus will trigger the deepest recession in EU history https://www.euractiv.com/section/economic-governance/news/coronavirus-will-trigger-the-deepest-recession-in-eu-history/

Cyprus Mail, 06/05/2020: Cyprus to see GDP contract by -7.4% according to EU spring forecast https://cyprus-mail.com/2020/05/06/cyprus-to-see-gdp-contract-by-7-4-according-to-eu-spring-forecast/

The Sofia Globe, 06/05/2020: EC sees unemployment in Bulgaria reaching 7% in 2020, GDP contracting by 7% https://sofiaglobe.com/2020/05/06/ec-sees-unemployment-in-bulgaria-reaching-7-in-2020-gdp-contracting-by-7/

Politico, 06/05/2020: Europe’s economy, employment dive in pandemic fallout https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/06/europes-economy-employment-dive-in-pandemic-fallout-239785

Deutsche Welle, 06/05/2020: Coronavirus: EU faces 'recession of historic proportions' https://p.dw.com/p/3brpQ

EUObserver, 07/05/2020: EU set for record recession, putting euro at risk https://euobserver.com/coronavirus/148283

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Official

European Commission: Spring 2020 Economic Forecast: A deep and uneven recession, an uncertain recovery https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/spring-2020-economic-forecast_en

European Commission: Press Release, 06/05/2020: Spring 2020 Economic Forecast: A deep and uneven recession, an uncertain recovery https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_799

European Commission: Remarks by Commissioner Gentiloni at the press conference on the Spring 2020 Economic Forecast, 6 May 2020 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_20_822

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