European Economic Forecast. Summer 2021

Summary:

The European Commission published on 7 July 2021 its Summer economic forecast for the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone.

Further information:

The Summer 2021 Economic Forecast projects that the economy will rebound faster than previously expected. This is due to the activity in the first quarter of the year exceeding expectations and the improved health situation, which prompted a swifter easing of pandemic control restrictions in the second quarter.

According to the forecast, the economy in the EU and the Euro area is set to expand by 4.8% this year and 4.5% in 2022. Real GDP is projected to return to its pre‑crisis level in the last quarter of 2021 in both the EU and the euro area. For the euro area, this is one quarter earlier than expected in the previous economic forecast.

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Commentary and Analysis

ETUC: Press Release, 07/07/2021: EU recovery shows need to reform budget rules https://www.etuc.org/en/pressrelease/eu-recovery-shows-need-reform-budget-rules

CEPR: VoxEU, 08/07/2021: Beyond the pandemic: From life support to structural change https://voxeu.org/article/beyond-pandemic-life-support-structural-change

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News

Bloomberg, 07/07/2021: Euro-Area Outlook Raised by EU With Warning on Inflation https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-07/euro-area-outlook-raised-by-eu-with-warning-on-inflation-risks

Reuters, 07/07/2021: EU hikes recovery forecast as downside risks emerge https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-hikes-recovery-forecast-downside-risks-emerge-2021-07-07/

Cyprus Mail, 07/07/2021: EU Commission forecasts sharply higher Cyprus growth in 2021 https://cyprus-mail.com/2021/07/07/eu-commission-forecasts-sharply-higher-cyprus-growth-in-2021/

Euronews, 07/07/2021: Vaccination and lifting of restrictions lead to faster-than-expected EU economic recovery https://www.euronews.com/2021/07/07/vaccination-and-lifting-of-restrictions-lead-to-faster-than-expected-eu-economic-recovery

RTÉ News, 07/07/2021: European Commission raises Irish GDP growth forecasts https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/0707/1233607-commissions-irish-growth-forecasts/

Associated Press, 07/07/2021: EU upbeat over economic growth, concerned about inflation https://apnews.com/article/europe-coronavirus-pandemic-economic-growth-inflation-health-ece895a147f3699f6dc7faa2ebcb0563

The Irish Times, 07/07/2021: Irish economy forecast to grow 7.2% as vaccine rollout gains pace https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/irish-economy-forecast-to-grow-7-2-as-vaccine-rollout-gains-pace-1.4613962

N1 Info, 07/07/2021: European Commission revises up Croatia’s 2021 GDP forecast to 5.4 pct https://hr.n1info.com/english/news/european-commission-revises-up-croatias-2021-gdp-forecast-to-5-4-pct/

ECO News, 07/07/2021: EU maintains its forecast for Portugal’s economy, but revises Eurozone growth https://econews.pt/2021/07/07/european-commission-maintains-its-forecast-for-portugal-but-revises-euro-zone-growth/

The Slovenia Times, 07/07/2021: EU Commission upgrades Slovenia’s GDP growth forecast to 5.7% https://sloveniatimes.com/eu-commission-upgrades-slovenias-gdp-growth-forecast-to-5-7/

Radio Prague International, 07/07/2021: Czech economy will grow by 3.9 percent in 2021, according to European Commission https://english.radio.cz/czech-economy-will-grow-39-percent-2021-according-european-commission-8722350

Luxembourg Times, 07/07/2021: Euro-area outlook raised by EU with warning on inflation risks https://www.luxtimes.lu/en/european-union/economy-euro-area-outlook-raised-by-eu-with-warning-on-inflation-risks-60e590d9de135b9236b67e95

TVN24, 07/07/2021: EU Commission ups GDP forecast for Poland in 2021 https://tvn24.pl/tvn24-news-in-english/eu-commission-ups-gdp-forecast-for-poland-in-2021-5142811

EurActiv, 08/07/2021: Amid Delta scare, EU forecasts higher growth in eurozone https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/amid-delta-scare-eu-forecasts-higher-growth-in-eurozone/

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Official

European Commission: Summer 2021 Economic Forecast: Reopening fuels recovery https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/summer-2021-economic-forecast_en

European Commission: Press Release, 07/07/2021: Summer 2021 Economic Forecast: Reopening fuels recovery https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_3481

European Commission: Remarks by Commissioner Gentiloni at the press conference on the Summer 2021 Economic Forecast (7 July 2021) https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_21_3546

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