Once again, the Treasury overestimates the costs of leaving the EU

In this article the author, David Blake, Professor of Economics at the Cass Business School and a member of pro-Brexit Economists for Free Trade argued that HM Treasury had overestimated the costs to the UK of leaving the EU, by not taking into account the regulatory burdens of staying in the single market or the benefits from reducing tariffs by leaving the customs union.

The UK’s prospects for trade and prosperity after Brexit would be inversely related to the size of the tariffs on international trade that the UK itself set. The lower the tariff barriers, the brighter the prospects would be.

By leaving both the single market with its regulatory excesses and the customs union with its high tariffs on imported goods, UK GDP would increase by 6% – in marked contrast to the Treasury’s dire and exaggerated predictions of a 7.7% reduction in GDP.

• Primary Source

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

Patrick Minford: From Project Fear to Project Prosperity. An introduction (Economists for Free Trade, 2017) http://www.europeansources.info/record/from-project-fear-to-project-prosperity-an-introduction/

http://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/ http://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/

Patrick Minford (et al): Alternative Brexit Economic Analysis (Economists for Free Trade, 2018) http://www.europeansources.info/record/alternative-brexit-economic-analysis/

Economists for Free Trade, 2018: How the Civil Service has misled us on the costs of Brexit and the Customs Union https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/EFT-How-the-Civil-Service-has-misled-us-on-costs-of-Brexit-and-the-customs-union-May-2018.pdf

United Kingdom: House of Commons: Exiting the European Union Committee: EU Exit Analysis: Cross Whitehall Briefing, January 2018 http://www.europeansources.info/record/eu-exit-analysis-cross-whitehall-briefing-january-2018/

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