Preparing for Brexit

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Publication Date January 2018
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The report, which was the first comprehensive assessment of Brexit across key indicators and sectors at a sub-national level revealed a spread of impacts under five different scenarios, ranging from a status quo (where the UK remaind in the single market and customs union) to an extreme no-deal (WTO rules) outcome.

The study suggested that London would emerge relatively better than the rest of the UK following Brexit, due to its resilience to economic shocks.

However, the results show that Brexit would not only reduce the size of the UK economy (compared to what may have happened if the UK remained in the single market and customs union), but also put it on a slower long-term growth trajectory (the economy was still expected to grow, but at a slower rate than if Brexit did not occur).Cambridge Econometrics’ study Preparing for Brexit commissioned by London Mayor Sadiq Khan was published in January 2018. It gave a major insight into the local economic impacts of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union.

The independent research showed that every Brexit outcome analysed would be bad for the British economy, but that the harder the Brexit, the more severe the economic damage could be.

The Mayor of London announced in December 2017 that that he had commissioned the independent analysis from Cambridge Econometrics, just days after Brexit secretary David Davis admitted that the Government had not produced detailed economic impact assessments as previously claimed.

In January 2018 the Mayor warned that time was fast running out on the negotiations, as a final deal including the full details of a transitional deal and detailed agreement on the outline of a future trade relationship must be agreed between the UK Government and the EU 27 by October 2018 - in order to receive ratification from all EU members.

Sadiq Khan reiterated his call for the UK Government to change course in the negotiations. He wanted Ministers to abandon their hard Brexit approach and instead to push for continued British membership of the single market and customs union.

Source Link https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/preparing_for_brexit_final_report.pdf
Related Links
GLA: Press Release, 11.01.18: Almost 500,000 UK jobs under threat from ‘no deal’ hard Brexit https://www.london.gov.uk/press-releases/mayoral/jobs-under-threat-from-brexit
BBC News, 11.01.18: Sadiq Khan warns of Brexit 'lost decade' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42643434
The Guardian, 11.01.18: [Analysis]: Does London mayor Sadiq Khan's Brexit report stack up? https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/11/does-london-mayor-sadiq-khans-brexit-report-stack-up
Politico, 11.01.18: No-deal Brexit puts 87,000 London jobs at risk: report https://www.politico.eu/article/no-deal-brexit-puts-87000-london-jobs-at-risk-report/
ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/
Blog: UK in a Changing Europe, 20.03.18: Brexit has added another twist to London’s elections http://ukandeu.ac.uk/brexit-has-added-another-twist-to-londons-elections/

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