Using financial variables to estimate the Irish output gap: do they make a difference?

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Series Details No.4, December 2015
Publication Date 04/12/2015
ISBN 978-92-79-48744-6
ISSN 2443-8030
EC KC-BE-15-004-EN-N
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Standard potential output estimates during Ireland’s housing boom failed to detect the build-up of imbalances and risks to the country’s public finances. This paper looks at an alternative methodology, including financial variables such as property prices and bank credit, which would have supported a more cautious assessment at the time.

Written by Mirzha de Manuel Aramendía, Rafal Raciborski

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