Who to believe… if anyone?

Two recent assessments of the economics of Brexit, from HM Treasury and a new group calling itself Economists for Brexit, come to diametrically opposed conclusions as to the effects of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. They add to an array of claims and counter-claims, many of which come up with apparently firm predictions, but have subtle differences that make direct comparisons difficult. Voters are entitled to be confused and to wonder whether anyone can be believed.

• Primary Source

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

ESO: Background information: HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives http://www.europeansources.info/record/hm-treasury-analysis-the-long-term-economic-impact-of-eu-membership-and-the-alternatives/

ESO: Background information: The Economy after Brexit http://www.europeansources.info/record/the-economy-after-brexit/

Blog: Open Europe, 06.05.16: Is EU referendum uncertainty beginning to feed through to economic growth? http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/eu-referendum-uncertainty-beginning-feed-economic-growth/

Blog: LSE EuroppBlog, 09.05.16: The economics of Brexit: which side should we believe? http://bit.ly/1T6t8Uw

Blog: EuroppBlog, 02.06.16: The ‘Britain Alone’ scenario: how Economists for Brexit defy the laws of gravity http://bit.ly/1TQSOVM

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