| Author (Corporate) | BBC |
|---|---|
| Series Title | BBC News |
| Series Details | 25.05.16 |
| Publication Date | 25/05/2016 |
| Content Type | News |
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Leaving the EU could directly free up about £8 billion a year, which is the UK’s likely net contribution to the EU budget over the next few years. This would help the public finances. But the overall public finance impact would depend on the economic effects of the UK leaving the EU. A fall in national income of 0.6%, relative to what it otherwise would have been, would be enough to offset this direct effect. There is near consensus that leaving the EU would have a greater negative effect on the UK’s economy than that. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, whose comprehensive analysis has produced estimates that are in the middle of the available range, suggests GDP in 2019 could be between 2.1% and 3.5% lower as a result of a Brexit. A hit to GDP of this magnitude would imply a hit to the public finances, after taking account of the reduced EU contribution, of between £20 billion and £40 billion in 2019–20. These are among the main findings of a new report published on the 25 May 2016 and funded by the ESRC’s UK in a Changing Europe initiative. The report examines both the direct and indirect effects of Brexit on the UK’s public finances, based on a comprehensive review of studies analysing the short- and long- term economic effects of Brexit. |
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| Source Link | http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36371700 |
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| Countries / Regions | United Kingdom |
