Divided kingdom: how England could force a Brexit, even if others vote to stay

As the debate over Britain’s future in the European Union gathers pace and heat, there has been much discussion of what might happen if voters in England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales disagree. What if the UK were to leave based on the English vote alone?

Would such an outcome provide the 'material change' in circumstances cited by the SNP’s leadership as a potential trigger for a second independence referendum? What would such a decision mean for support for independence in Scotland and Wales? Could there even be implications for the peace deal in Northern Ireland, as the Irish prime minister recently suggested?

At the same time, rather less attention has been paid to the potential for another, equally plausible, outcome. What if England votes narrowly in favour of leaving the EU, but is kept in Europe by its more Europhile UK neighbours? Could such an outcome trigger calls from England for further loosening of ties within the UK?

• Primary Source

openDemocracy: Can Europe Make It?, 04.12.15: 3 scenarios for the outcome of the UK’s EU referendum https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/kirsty-hughes/3-scenarios-for-outcome-of-uk-s-eu-referendum

Carnegie Europe: Strategic Europe, 21.06.16: Brexit, the English Revolt http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=63861

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