For Europe, an end to Schengen could mean a dramatic decline in growth

Discussing the possibility of new border checks, Europe's citizens have so far focused on the potential inconvenience for travelers from one country to another. Economists, however, warn of much more serious consequences. The reinstatement of border controls would pose an extraordinary threat to growth and prosperity.

The findings of a study conducted by Prognos AG on behalf of the Bertelsmann Stiftung published in 2016 showed that a permanent reinstatement of internal border controls would have a dramatic effect on economic growth throughout Europe, causing a noticeable decline in prosperity.

For Germany alone, lower growth might be expected to produce cumulated losses of at least €77bn between 2016 and 2025. In a more pessimistic scenario, losses could amount to as much as €235bn. For the EU as a whole, they would be likely to reach €470bn. If Schengen were to collapse, moreover, the negative economic effects would be felt even outside of Europe

• Primary Source

Bertelsmann Stiftung: Study, 2016: Abkehr vom Schengen-Abkommen. Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen auf Deutschland und die Länder der Europäischen Union https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/publications/publication/did/abkehr-vom-schengen-abkommen/

The Local.de, 22.02.16: Abolishing open borders 'could cost Germany €235 bn' http://www.thelocal.de/20160222/closing-eu-borders-could-cost-germany-235-billion

Deutsche Welle, 22.02.16: Study: Schengen collapse would cost EU dearly http://dw.com/p/1HziA

ESO: Background information: Germany to extend border controls indefinitely: interior minister http://www.europeansources.info/record/germany-to-extend-border-controls-indefinitely-interior-minister/

ESO: Background information: The Schengen Area [What Think Tanks Are Thinking], February 2016 http://www.europeansources.info/record/the-schengen-area-what-think-tanks-are-thinking/

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