Poll of polls: how worried should Remain be as voters come off fence?

The campaign to keep Britain in the EU suffered a significant blow in early June 2016 at a crucial point in the EU referendum battle with an ICM poll putting Leave further ahead than ever before.

The poll, published by The Guardian on the 13 June 2016, gave Leave 53% of the vote and Remain just 47% once undecideds had been excluded.

The author's poll of polls confirmed a significant swing towards a Leave vote. A look across 239 opinion polls on voting intentions in the referendum conducted from September 2010 to 13 June 2016 showed the trend beginning in June 2016. If it continued, the United Kingdom would vote to leave the EU on the 23 June 2016.

• Primary Source

The Guardian, 13.06.16: EU referendum: leave takes six-point lead in Guardian/ICM polls http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/eu-referendum-leave-campaign-takes-six-point-lead-in-guardianicm-polls

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

ESO: Background information: Can we trust referendum polls in the UK? http://www.europeansources.info/record/can-we-trust-referendum-polls-in-the-uk/

UK in a Changing Europe: Topic: Public opinion http://ukandeu.ac.uk/theme/public-opinion/

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/ http://whatukthinks.org/eu/

ECFR: Commentary, 13.06.16: The referendum rollercoaster http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_referendum_rollercoaster_7043

The Economist, 21.06.16: EU referendum polling. Beware the 'Brintroverts' http://www.economist.com/blogs/bagehot/2016/06/eu-referendum-polling

Blog: LSE EuroppBlog, 23.06.16: Voters might be fed up with politicians, but they will listen to people ‘like them’ http://bit.ly/28ODSRv

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