The Economy after Brexit

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Publication Date April 2016
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The Economists for Brexit launched on the 28 April 2016 was a group of eight independent, leading economists who were convinced of the strong economic case for leaving the EU.

In their opinion, debate on the economic merits of whether the UK should remain in the EU had become overwhelmed by the Government's Project Fear campaign. Each of the eight economists had become exasperated by the scaremongering and often economic illiteracy of this campaign.

At the same time, the group believed that whilst there were a substantial number of economic arguments to support Brexit, they were yet to be made in public. The purpose of this group was to explain the very clear economic arguments in favour of Brexit, offering voters - who were crying out for clarity on the economics of Brexit facts based on proven economic models, as opposed to speculation.

The key points in their launch report were:

Summary of views:

+ Brexit will result in a better economic outcome than remaining in the EU.
+ Economic forecasts (based on proven financial modelling by Patrick Minford) show that on leaving the EU:
- Output grows 2%
- Competitiveness rises 5%
- Real disposable wages up 1.5%
- Exchange rate falls 6%
- Inflation and interest rates rise to 2-3% range
- Current account improves to -1.5% of GDP
- Unemployment reduced by 0.2% (75,000 on benefit count)

+ The UK does not need to do a trade deal to trade. It already trades extensively with many countries across the globe under the rules of the WTO and can continue to do so with EU countries in the future (in the same way that the US, Japan and China does). Leaving the EU will decrease prices and boost GDP.
+ The City of London will retain its role as the world’s leading financial centre outside of the EU.
+ The UK is a net contributor to the EU budget and those funds could be utilised far more efficiently elsewhere.

Source Link http://www.economistsforbrexit.co.uk/s/Economists-for-Brexit-The-Economy-After-Brexit.pdf
Related Links
The Guardian, 28.04.16: Leave campaign hits back with its own economists http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/28/leave-campaign-economists-for-brexit-report
BBC News, 28.04.16: 'Economists for Brexit' back campaign to leave EU http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36150193
ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/
ESO: Background information: IMF: EU exit could cause severe damage http://www.europeansources.info/record/imf-eu-exit-could-cause-severe-damage/
ESO: Background information: The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision http://www.europeansources.info/record/the-economic-consequences-of-brexit-a-taxing-decision/
The Conversation, 28.04.16: The economic case for Brexit https://theconversation.com/the-economic-case-for-brexit-58389
VoxEU: Tag: Brexit http://voxeu.org/taxonomy/term/5467
ESO: Background information: HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives http://www.europeansources.info/record/hm-treasury-analysis-the-long-term-economic-impact-of-eu-membership-and-the-alternatives/
Website: Economists for Britain https://forbritain.org/economists/
TUC: Press Release, 28.04.16: Minford view on Brexit and exports lacks credibility, says TUC https://www.tuc.org.uk/international-issues/europe/eu-referendum/minford-view-brexit-and-exports-lacks-credibility-says-tuc
Blog: UK in a Changing Europe, 29.04.16: The economic case for Brexit http://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-economic-case-for-brexit/
Blog: LSE BrexitVote, 02.05.16: Broadening the market is good. To believe otherwise is flat-earth delusional http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexitvote/2016/05/02/broadening-the-market-is-good-to-believe-otherwise-is-flat-earth-delusional/
Blog: EuroppBlog, 02.06.16: The ‘Britain Alone’ scenario: how Economists for Brexit defy the laws of gravity http://bit.ly/1TQSOVM
CAPX, 03.06.16: The trouble with the economic consensus against Brexit http://capx.co/the-trouble-with-the-economic-consensus-against-brexit/
The Conversation, 14.06.16: Two big flaws in the Economists for Brexit plan https://theconversation.com/two-big-flaws-in-the-economists-for-brexit-plan-60878

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