The EU’s silent revolution

The voices advocating a substantial overhaul of the European Union’s institutions have become weaker in the last 12 months. Comprehensive treaty reform is no longer on the wish list of the leading EU member states and is now the least likely option for solving the current crisis. Nevertheless, a silent revolution of the EU is underway. The supranational dream of a European federation is giving way to a pragmatic approach based on a new intergovernmentalism. It is not a new grand design of European integration but a default mechanism necessitated by
the impossibility of treaty change and by the
interests of the major players.

Similarly, a new type of differentiation by default rather than by political purpose is taking place within the EU. Despite efforts to keep the EU together, the rift between the eurozone and the rest of the member states is becoming deeper. In particular, the UK is unlikely to realign with the EU and Poland is unlikely to accede to the euro any time
soon. Both the British and Polish questions will have a major impact on the future shape of the EU. Between the German elections in September 2013 and the European election
in May 2014, Europeans will be reminded that the issues thrown up by the EU’s silent revolution are still on the table.

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