The next battle for Ukraine

In spite of the Minsk ceasefire, the conflict in Eastern Ukraine continues to burn with new casualties reported almost every day. What options are open to Kyiv, Moscow and the EU now? ECFR asked three of their in-house experts to put forward the next potential military, economic and diplomatic battles in and over Ukraine.

In three separate commentaries on the next battle for Ukraine, ECFR Policy Fellows Gustav Gressel, Andrew Wilson and Kadri Liik explore the three battle grounds and explain how the EU should best approach each one of them. The experts have come to the following conclusions:

+ Further military escalation by Moscow cannot be ruled out so the West should consider how to deter Russia from escalating the war again and what to do if deterrence fails;
+ Russia’s aim remains to create a dysfunctional Ukraine, by whatever means it can – and the economic avenue is just as promising as the military route;
+ Moscow is rather looking for diplomatic ways to use the Donbas to control Kyiv and will work on pushing through its interpretation of the Minsk agreements.

• Primary Source

ESO: Key Source: Euromaidan - Protests in Ukraine 2013 - 2015 - Key source http://www.europeansources.info/record/euromaidan-protests-in-ukraine-2013-2015/

ESO: Background information: Agreed Statement of the Chair, Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, on the Foreign Ministers Normandy Meeting in Berlin, 13 April 2015 http://www.europeansources.info/record/agreed-statement-of-the-chair-foreign-minister-frank-walter-steinmeier-on-the-foreign-ministers-normandy-meeting-in-berlin-13-april-2015/

ESO: Background information: EU - Ukraine summit, Kyiv, 27 April 2015 http://www.europeansources.info/showDoc?ID=1203477

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