Press Release: Autumn forecast 2010-2012: EU recovery taking hold, but progress uneven

The European Commission's autumn forecast foresees a continuation of the economic recovery currently underway in the EU. GDP is projected to grow by around 1¾% in 2010-11 and by around 2% in 2012. A better than expected performance so far this year underpins the significant upward revision to annual growth in 2010 compared to the spring forecast. However, amid a softening global environment and the onset of fiscal consolidation, activity is expected to moderate towards the end of the year and in 2011, but to pick up again in 2012 on the back of strengthening private demand. With the economic recovery taking hold in the EU, labour-market conditions are expected to slowly improve over the forecast horizon, as is the budgetary situation. The unemployment rate is projected to fall to around 9% in 2012, with the public deficit declining to about 4¼% of GDP. Developments across Member States are nevertheless set to remain uneven.