Balancing beyond the horizon? Explaining aggregate EU naval military capability changes in a neo-realist perspective

Abstract: The present paper seeks to make sense of recent European Union (EU) naval capability changes by applying neo-realist theory to the EU as a collective actor in the global balance of power. The paper compares two different strands of neo-realist theory by deducing key predictions about the expected naval posture of the Union and the corresponding expected changes in capabilities. These predictions are subsequently held up against post-cold war data on naval acquisitions in the EU. The paper concludes that the observed patterns are best explained not as bandwagoning with the USA, but as a long-term balancing strategy aimed at bolstering the autonomy and international influence of the Union vis-agrave-vis other major powers, including the USA.