Is Transnistria the Next Crimea?

In terms of association with the EU, Moldova is now where Ukraine was before the Vilnius Summit: highly exposed to destabilisation, be that internal or external. Yet as Tiraspol has just cancelled the next round of the 5+2 format peace talks set for 10–11 April, it is becoming clear that the major challenge for Chisinau is a sudden change in the Transnistrian situation. In the run-up to the planned signing of the AA in June, Moscow will instigate incidents on the ground and employ diplomatic pressure towards federalisation. As a last resort, the Crimea scenario could play out in Transnistria.