European Economic Forecast. Winter 2022

Summary:

The European Commission published on 10 February 2022 its Winter economic forecast for the European Union (EU) and the Eurozone.

Further information:

The Winter 2022 Economic Forecast projects that EU economic expansion is expected to regain pace in the second quarter of 2022 after a loss in momentum caused by the surge in COVID-19 infections, high energy prices and continued supply side disruptions.

The forecast forecast projects that, following an expansion by 5.3% in 2021, the EU economy will grow by 4.0% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023. Growth in the euro area is also expected at 4.0% in 2022, moderating to 2.7% in 2023. The EU as a whole reached its pre-pandemic level of GDP in the third quarter of 2021 and all Member States are projected to have passed this milestone by the end of 2022.

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Official

European Commission: Economic Forecasts: Winter 2022 Economic Forecast: Growth expected to regain traction after winter slowdown https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/winter-2022-economic-forecast-growth-expected-regain-traction-after-winter-slowdown_en

European Commission: Press Release, 10/02/2022: Winter 2022 Economic Forecast: Growth expected to regain traction after winter slowdown https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_926

European Commission: Remarks by Commissioner Gentiloni at the press conference on the Winter 2022 Economic Forecast (10 February 2022) https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_22_953

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News

Reuters, 10/02/2022: EU exec cuts 2022 euro zone growth forecast, sharply raises inflation view https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-exec-cuts-2022-euro-zone-growth-forecast-sharply-raises-inflation-view-2022-02-10/

Euronews, 10/02/2022: Inflation in eurozone forecast to hit 4.8% amid soaring energy prices https://www.euronews.com/2022/02/10/inflation-in-eurozone-forecast-to-hit-4-8-amid-soaring-energy-prices

Bloomberg, 10/02/2022: Inflation Seen Below ECB’s Goal Next Year in Latest EU Forecast https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-10/inflation-seen-below-ecb-s-goal-next-year-in-latest-eu-forecast

RFI News, 10/02/2022: EU cuts eurozone growth forecast as inflation 'chills' economy https://www.rfi.fr/en/eu-cuts-eurozone-growth-forecast-as-inflation-chills-economy

RTÉ News, 10/02/2022: EU Commission increases Irish inflation and growth forecasts https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2022/0210/1279022-eu-increases-irish-growth-and-inflation-forecasts/

The Sofia Globe, 10/02/2022: EU winter economic forecast lowers Bulgaria 2022 growth estimate to 3.7% https://sofiaglobe.com/2022/02/10/eu-winter-economic-forecast-lowers-bulgaria-2022-growth-estimate-to-3-7/

ANSA, 10/02/2022: EC trims Italy's 2022 growth forecast to 4.1% https://www.ansa.it/english/news/business/2022/02/10/ec-trims-italys-2022-growth-forecast-to-4.1_bb1bd4d9-fcb7-46be-ae95-9266173e1944.html

The Irish Times, 10/02/2022: European Commission now expects Irish inflation to rise by 4.6% this year https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/european-commission-now-expects-irish-inflation-to-rise-by-4-6-this-year-1.4798763

EurActiv, 11/02/2022: EU cuts growth forecast as energy prices ‘chill’ economy https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/eu-cuts-growth-forecast-as-energy-prices-chill-economy/

Emerging Europe, 11/02/2022: EU predicts strong 2022 growth for Central Europe, well above bloc average https://emerging-europe.com/news/eu-predicts-strong-2022-growth-for-central-europe-well-above-bloc-average/

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Commentary and Analysis

European Trade Union Confederation (ETUC): Press Release, 10/02/2022: Strong recovery shows why EU must ditch debt rules https://www.etuc.org/en/pressrelease/strong-recovery-shows-why-eu-must-ditch-debt-rules

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