A long hot summer awaits in the Balkans

The EU and the UN have a patchy history in the Balkans, not least because they have consistently ignored the importance of history in the region, and as the final status of Kosovo takes centre-stage, they appear set to continue in much the same way.

While the EU has shouldered much responsibility in Bosnia and Kosovo, and shelled out large amounts of cash too, this happened in both cases only after the wars were fought. First in 1990-91 and then again in 1998-99, the EU proved incapable of undertaking serious preventative diplomacy. In both cases it also proved militarily inadequate - or worse. Indeed, the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), was created out of the reality of the Union’s failure in Bosnia.

But an EU failure should not be confused with a European effort and some credit must finally be given to the many forces from European nations which were part of the benighted Unprofor (UN Protection Force) in Bosnia in 1992-95, sent there by their governments - then barred from actually doing anything. It may also be time to end the myth that NATO aerial bombing ultimately resolved the Bosnian conflict in 1995. Alliance aircraft took out the Serb air defences, then the Croatian army attacked into Bosnia from the north and the UN Rapid Reaction Force - composed of British, French and Dutch units - pounded the Serb positions and broke the siege of Sarajevo. Between these and forceful US-led diplomacy, the Bosnian Serbs capitulated.

This short history is an object lesson on a number of counts. First, because it sets the record straight. Second, because it reflects the supremacy of narratives in defining history - NATO, much aided by the US, almost immediately created a zero-sum narrative of NATO success and UN/EU failure, which became dominant both in the region and around the world. It was then somewhat tarnished as the 1999 NATO bombing campaign to rid Kosovo of the Serbian oppressive forces stretched into 78 days from the original seven, but was then re-embellished by the entry of alliance ground forces, known as Kfor, into the province - where they have sat ever since.

Third, the EU and UN, in effectively taking the lead on the final status of Kosovo, should be aware that they are battling against a negative narrative from the start. This is no minor point, as many people know: history and narratives reign supreme in the Balkans. They even start wars, which then further enrich the narratives.

This is not the ideal position from which to negotiate an extremely sensitive settlement such as the final status of Kosovo - yet remarkably, few in either institution appear to be aware of this matter.

The UN envoy to Kosovo Martti Ahtisaari has made little effort to engage anyone in his proposed final status plan other than the EU, the US and the Kosovars. The glaring omissions in this list are Serbia and Russia - the former being the sovereign state from which Kosovo is to be hacked off in order to become independent, the latter being Serbia’s main backer and a former superpower seeking to regain its supremacy.

And to be clear: it is not just that Kosovo is a province of Serbia, it is also home to the mother of all Serbian narratives: Kosovo Polje, the field upon which the Serbs lost to the Turks in 1389. Serb public opinion will need a lot of swaying on that. Yet the EU and the UN appear oblivious: the EU has made various noises about resuming negotiations on an association agreement with Serbia - but has yet to offer anything concrete; and the UN is making plans to pack up and hand over to the EU, as if everything is already settled. And the US is, as ever, trying to ramrod through the settlement as if no problems existed.

The images of pre-war Bosnia and Kosovo are beginning to loom. It is not a pretty sight.

• Ilana Bet-El is an academic, author and policy adviser based in Brussels.

The EU and the UN have a patchy history in the Balkans, not least because they have consistently ignored the importance of history in the region, and as the final status of Kosovo takes centre-stage, they appear set to continue in much the same way.

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