After the election, nearing the endgame: the Polish euro debate in the run up to the 2003 EU accession referendum

Abstract:

Recent years have seen a significant fall in support for Polish EU membership and the emergence of a sizeable bloc of anti-EU public opinion. However, it would be wrong to interpret the September 2001 parliamentary election as representing a Eurosceptic backlash. Moreover, the new government has adopted a more flexible approach to the accession negotiations. This produced a mixed public reaction and the fact that the former communists have been forced into a coalition with an agrarian party will constrain the government's room for manoeuvre during the negotiating endgame. Nonetheless, overall levels of support for Polish EU membership appear to have consolidated at a relatively high level and it is extremely likely that most Poles will vote Yes in the 2003 accession referendum. The only real threat to a Yes vote appears to be if the accession referendum is turned into a plebiscite on the socio-economic transition as a whole. However, the greater concern for the pro-EU camp is that the referendum fails to achieve the turnout required by the Polish Constitution for it to be valid.

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