Article 50 one year on

Author (Person)
Series Title
Series Details March 2018
Publication Date 29/03/2018
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Academics contributing to the Economic and Social Research Council's 'The UK in a Changing Europe' published a report called Article 50 one year on on the 29 March 2018 - one year after the Article 50 process was triggered by the UK Government and one year before the date at which the UK would leave the EU.

The report suggested that significant political and economic uncertainty characterised the Brexit process. Across several policy sectors, a lack of clear direction was affecting the ability to plan for the future.

The 28 chapter, 73 page report was written by academics from The UK in a Changing Europe and covered what had happened since Article 50 was triggered, the negotiations and process of Brexit, politics and economics since March 2017, as well as what was likely to happen in key sectors. Report authors include John Curtice, Catherine Barnard, Jonathan Portes, Rob Ford and Anand Menon.

Further information sources marking the 1st anniversary of the triggering of Article 50 and one year before Brexit are listed as related hyperlinks below. This included the announcement from the Prime Minister's Office on the 29 March 2018 that Theresa May would embark on a day long tour across the United Kingdom in which she would outline her determination to deliver a Brexit deal that worked for every community and protected the integrity of the Union.

Further information

The situation was far from stable. The report found, demographic changes were pulling public opinion in a pro-European direction. By 2021, the electorate would be 52:48 Remain and by 2026 it would be 54:46 Remain as a result of rising education, rising ethnic diversity and generational change.

Public opinion about immigration appeared to have shifted: it was viewed more positively and as a much less salient issue, especially as the cabinet and country had moved in a more liberal direction. However, the report found there was no clear vision of immigration policy after Brexit, let alone any concrete policy decisions.

When it came to economics, the report found:

+ GDP growth in the UK was, on average, 0.6% higher than the other G7 members before the referendum. In 2017 it was 0.9% lower

Taking countries that matched UK growth prior to the referendum, academics found that by the third quarter of 2017 UK GDP was approximately 1.3% lower than it would have been if the UK had not voted for Brexit

+ Financial markets had lowered their expectations for future UK economic performance which was evidenced by the pound remaining 10% below its pre-referendum value

+ The Brexit vote had increased inflation by 1.7 percentage points in the year following the referendum.

In Northern Ireland there were fears that the problems facing the island of Ireland were either misunderstood by London or wilfully ignored. The UK had not managed to provide the necessary detail to reconcile the need to avoid a hard border and leaving the single market and customs union.

In aviation, the stakes in the negotiations were high, with the most likely scenario being that market access would be lost by both sides and UK industry and consumers would be hit especially hard. In agriculture even a relatively ‘soft’ Brexit would lead to small producer price changes. Cereal and dairy farms would be relatively unaffected by post-Brexit changes to prices, while many beef and sheep farms would be more vulnerable.

Legally, while the Withdrawal Bill symbolised the fact that the UK was ‘taking back control,’ transition meant the UK would remain bound by its EU obligations while lacking voting rights.

The UK in a Changing Europe
The UK in a Changing Europe promotes rigorous, high-quality and independent research into the complex and ever changing relationship between the UK and the European Union (EU).

It provides an authoritative, non-partisan and impartial reference point for those looking for information, insights and analysis about UK-EU relations that stands aside from the politics surrounding the debate.

The Initiative’s work is tailored to be easily accessible to policy makers, businesses, journalists, civil society organisations, educational institutions and the general public who are interested in the UK’s relationship with the EU.

It is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), and based at King’s College London.

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Related Links
The Guardian: Tag: Brexit: one year to go
Open Europe: Blog, 11.04.18: Reconciling different perspectives
BBC News, 26.03.18: Brexit: All you need to know about the UK leaving the EU
Institute for Government: Event Report, 26.03.18: Brexit: one year to go
In Facts, 29.03.18: Brexit isn’t a done deal, but we’ve only a year to stop it
ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union
ESO: Find further information in ESO on Brexit and Article 50
European Parliament: European Parliamentary Research Service: Briefing, 2016: Article 50 TEU: Withdrawal of a Member State from the EU
Research Live: Feature, 27.03.18: Brexit one year on: everyone’s a loser
Euronews, 29.03.18: Article 50 a year on: Brexit ‘red lines’ change colour
LSE European Institute: EuroppBlog, 12.04.18: How has the first year of the Brexit negotiations affected politics in the EU?
The Conversation, 28.03.18: Article 50 one year on: a more dangerous world shifts focus of Brexit debate
Social Europe, 18.04.18: The Complete Failure Of The Brexit Project
Wales: National Assembly for Wales:Senedd Research: In Brief, 29.03.18: One year to go: Brexit negotiations reach halfway point
UK: GOV.UK: Prime Minister's Office: Press Release, 29.03.18: Prime Minister vows to deliver a Brexit that unites the UK

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