Azerbaijan. Long live the king

Aliev junior turns out to be much like Aliev senior

A YEAR after Ilham Aliev became president, you might be forgiven for thinking his father, Heidar, still ruled Azerbaijan. The Soviet veteran, who dominated the country for over 30 years before his death at 80 last December, is omnipresent. He gazes from billboards everywhere. In Baku, the airport, a main road and a concert hall have been renamed in his honour. Every government office displays his portrait. His face appears even on carpets.

Ilham Aliev has yet to escape the paternal shadow. Policy is unchanged, as is most of the presidential entourage. “People wanted to continue Heidar Aliev's ideology,” says Mubariz Gurbanly, of the ruling New Azerbaijan party. “That means Azerbaijan becoming the most powerful country in our region, uniting all Azerbaijanis around one idea and restoring our territorial integrity.” This refers to Nagorno-Karabakh. On the entourage, he notes that people from the “school of Heidar Aliev” guide Ilham.

Those who had hoped that the younger Aliev might liberalise are disappointed. What remains of the opposition inspires little loyalty among voters. Isa Gambar, head of one opposition party, Musavat, claims that he was cheated in last year's presidential elections, and that his followers have been denied television coverage and permission to demonstrate ever since. “The authorities love power very much and are ready to do anything to keep it,” declares Ali Kerimli, leader of another opposition party, the Popular Front.

Although many political prisoners have been freed, seven Aliev opponents have just been jailed for their role in street protests after last year's election. Others have been tortured. The head of an interior ministry unit allegedly responsible has been promoted, says Arzu Abdullayeva, head of the local Helsinki Citizens' Assembly. Ms Abdullayeva thinks Ilham may be a softer version of his father, but that closed-minded advisers call the shots. “He's not really in power at all. De facto, it's Heidar Aliev's team ruling.”

With billions of dollars pouring into Caspian oilfields, Azerbaijan ought to be quite rich. In the past two years, buoyant oil prices have pushed annual GDP growth into double figures. Yet outside Baku, there is little sign of prosperity. Almost half the population lives in poverty. The minimum wage is $20 a month. As many as a quarter of the country's 8.3m people have emigrated. The latest corruption assessment by Transparency International ranks Azerbaijan 140th out of 146 countries.

The government insists that things are improving. Ilham Aliev is promising 600,000 new jobs and has set up an anti-corruption commission. Yet life remains tough for most. Next year petrol and gas prices will rise sharply as part of economic reforms. “Heidar or Ilham? I don't see much use in either,” concludes Elshen, a carpet-seller in Baku's walled old town. “Politicians play their games, and the people are the victims.”

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