Balkan countries set for EU membership in the future, March 2003

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Series Details 29.3.03
Publication Date 31/03/2003
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Whilst the phrase "an EU of 25" is frequently heard around the European Union (EU) as it prepares for enlargement in 2004, Europeans may soon be talking about an "EU of more than thirty" after the European Commission announced that countries in the Western Balkans are on course for membership.

In its second annual report [COM (2003) 139] on the Stabilisation and Association process for the countries of South East Europe, approved on 26 March 2003 [IP/03/433], the European Commission recognised the progress made in the Western Balkans in the reforms needed for closer European integration. It suggested that Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Serbia and Montenegro could all become Member States in the future as long as the political will to do so remained.

Background

The creation of a Stabilisation and Association process for the countries of South East Europe was first proposed by the European Commission in May 1999 [IP/99/350] as a means of enhancing the existing regional approach to the area. The EU regional approach to the Western Balkans was developed in 1996, with the aim of reinforcing the successful implementation of the Dayton / Paris and Erdut peace agreements as well as creating an area of political stability and economic prosperity.

In the light of the success of the regional approach, the European Commission sought to propose "a more far-reaching strategy to underline that all countries in the region have the prospect of increasing rapprochement with the EU, with the perspective of full integration into European structures".

By establishing a Stabilisation and Association process, the European Commission hoped to combine both the development of existing instruments with new initiatives aimed at an improvement of the situation. New Stability and Association Agreements would provide a new kind of contractual relation with the countries concerned and each would be tailor made to the specific needs of the individual country.

The key elements of the Stabilisation and Association process are:

  • The development of existing economic and trade relations with and within the region.
  • The development/partial reorientation of existing economic and financial assistance.
  • Increased assistance for democratisation, civil society, education and institution-building.
  • The use of new opportunities for co-operation in various fields, including justice and home affairs (in particular following the entry into force of the Amsterdam Treaty).
  • The development of political dialogue, including at regional level.

More background information on the Stabilisation and Association process can be found in a European Commission press release [IP/99/350] issued on 26 May 1999. The DG External Relations website on Relations with South Eastern Europe also provides valuable information.

The SAA process is underpinned by the EU's Community Assistance for Reconstruction, Development and Stabilisation programme (CARDS) which provides financial assistance to support the reforms and institution building necessary to implement the obligations in the Stabilisation and Association Agreements

First Annual Report on the Stabilisation and Association Process

At a meeting of EU government leaders and heads of state from countries in the Western Balkans in the Croatian capital of Zagreb on 24 November 2000, an agreement was reached on the establishment of a Stabilisation and Association process between the two regions. In the "Declaration of the Zagreb Summit" the South East European countries agreed to use the Stabilisation and Association process as the means to begin to prepare themselves for the demands of accession to the EU in return for the EU's offer of a prospect of accession on the basis of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) and the 1993 Copenhagen criteria and an assistance programme to support that ambition.

A year and a half later, in April 2002, the European Commission adopted its first annual report [COM(2002) 163] on the progress of the Stabilisation and Association process, concluding that the initiative was producing the desired results. According to the report, the region was becoming more stable and its countries had embarked on an ambitious political and economic reform programme based on EU law and practice. In particular, the report noted the success in establishing contractual links and trade preferences.

The report was accompanied by the by five country reports [SEC(2002)339-343], covering: Albania; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Croatia; Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY); and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (fYROM); which set out the Commission's assessment of progress, or the lack of it, in the key areas of political and economic development and capacity to participate in the Stabilisation and Association process. The European Commission's assessment is accompanied by recommendations for action in the course of the next twelve months, allowing for a further review to be carried out twelve months later.

The purpose of the annual reports on the Stabilisation and Association process is to help governments, parliaments, business and community leaders, civil society and other interested parties across Europe to understand the requirements of the process and to help them focus political and financial resources on the key priorities.

Second Annual Report on the Stabilisation and Association Process

The second annual report [COM(2003)139] on the Stabilisation and Association process was approved by the European Commission on 26 March 2003. It reconfirms the perspective of an even closer relationship with, and ultimately membership of, the European Union, which was reinforced at the Copenhagen European Council in December 2002.

The report welcomes the significant efforts invested by the countries of the Western Balkans in the Stabilisation and Association process, noting:

"Stability has essentially been restored; security has improved; all of the countries have democratically elected governments; massive reconstruction has taken place across the region; a substantial number of refugees and internally displaced persons have returned home; reforms in many sectors are underway - the cumulative effect of this is to lay the foundations for economic, social and institutional development, for a normalisation of every-day life and for the countries' gradual rapprochement with the European Union".

However, the report also reveals shortcomings and slow progress in the reform process in many sectors and in several countries, in particular in the implementation of agreements. It also notes the apparent lack of political will to implement the reform process, stating:

"It is in most countries being achieved at a slow pace, however, and sometimes more due to international input and pressure rather than a willingness or ability of the countries themselves to take ownership of and drive forward the reform process".

The report goes on to outline ways in the process could be further strengthened, drawing the countries ever closer to the Union in what can be considered a shared agenda for European integration. It also notes the links between the Stabilisation and Association process and the EU's CFSP in particular the EU's police mission to Bosnia Herzegovina and the EU's assumption of the NATO peacekeeping role in Macedonia.

Commenting on the report, External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten, welcomed the considerable progress made in the three and a half years since he became Commissioner but warned that there was a need for a continued political will to proceed down the path to European integration:

"Progress is in many respects remarkable. But we are demanding because we want to see reforms and to see these countries closer to the rest of the European Union as rapidly as possible. In the second report we've noted the progress which is being made for example in elections, with return of refugees, with the passage of legislation and so on. But the progress is slower that we would ideally have liked and quite a few things that we have set out in our reports last year haven't been achieved. So we will keep pressing for more to be done and above all we will press the countries of the region to show a greater sense of political ownership for the process of reform. I don't think it is sensible for us to be in the situation in which we are having to nag in order to have things done. In order to help the economy I think it is very important that political leaders show that they are the cutting edge of reform".

Prospects for the Balkans after EU enlargement in 2007

With the stabilisation and association process well underway, countries in the Western Balkans are expected to feel increasing ties with the European Union after 2007 when Romania and Bulgaria are expected to join, thereby encircling the SAA countries within EU territory.

However, the fragility of the region, highlighted by the assassination of the Serbian Prime Minister, Zoran Djindjic, and the serious problems of organised crime and corruption have led many analysts to suggest that it is already time for a new policy framework for the Balkans. Commentators claim that the Stabilisation and Association agreements, which to date have only been signed with Croatia and Macedonia, are not suitable instruments in the context of accession. Moreover, the financial support of the region is set to fall dramatically over the next two years, with EU funding alone dropping from €900 million a year to €500 million in 2005-2006.

This combination of factors led the Berlin based organisation, the European Stability Initiative (ESI) to submit a report to EU High representative Javier Solana, warning that:

"The Western Balkans is facing a looming crisis of social and economic dislocation which puts at risk some of the EU's most important interests in this strategic region".

The ESI argues that there should be an institutionalised partnership between the European Commission and national and sub-national authorities and a more effective multi-annual programming of development efforts.

As Greece, which has close ties with the region, is currently the holder of the EU's rotating presidency, the countries of the Western Balkans might expect more EU attention in the coming months. The Greek Presidency has already announced that it intends to give the issues in the Western Balkans a prominent place on the agenda of the Thessaloniki European Council in June 2003 at which progress since the Zagreb summit will be reviewed. The European Commission is also being called upon to come up with detailed proposals of its own to put the EU relationship with the countries of South East Europe on a more satisfactory long term footing.

Yet since Croatia is the only country in the region to have submitted a formal application for EU membership it is likely to be several years before Europeans can speak of an EU of "thirty or more".

Further information within European Sources Online:

European Sources Online: Topic Guides
Information on European countries: Macedonia
Information on European countries: Serbia
Information on European countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina
Information on European countries: Croatia
Information on European countries: Albania
 
European Sources Online: In Focus
EU opens negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement with Albania, February 2003
The Union's post-enlargement relations with its Eastern and Southern Neighbours, March 2003
 
European Sources Online: Financial Times
10.04.01: EU's accord with Macedonia could be model for Balkans
30.10.01: EU in wrangle on Balkans stability pact
15.01.02: Bosnia to lobby EU for support
24.04.02: Serbia urges EU to press on with Yugoslav entry
20.05.02: Albania urges Brussels to set firm date for stability pact talks
18.12.02: Seeking to carve out a new place in Europe
27.12.02: Croatia to apply early in 2003 for EU entry
31.01.03: Prodi in talks to test Albania on reforms
13.03.03: The west ignores the Balkans at its peril
 
European Sources Online: European Voice
06.07.00: EU lures Balkan states down path of reform
09.01.03: Time for a new policy framework in the Western Balkans

Further information can be seen in these external links:
(long-term access cannot be guaranteed)

EU Institutions

European Commission

DG Press and Communication
Press Releases:
  26.05.99: Commission proposes a Stabilisation and Association process for countries of South-Eastern Europe [IP/99/350]
  10.05.00: Commission proposes to simplify and accelerate assistance to the Western Balkans [IP/00/456]
  04.04.02: Western Balkans: European Commission publishes first annual report on the Stabilisation and Association Process [IP/02/503]
  20.09.02: Bosnia and Herzegovina: first step in Stabilisation & Asssociation Process is "substantially completed" [IP/02/1345]
Speeches:
  12.04.00: The Stabilisation and Association Process and the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe [SPEECH/00/138]
  25.10.01: European Commission statement at the Regional Conference for South Eastern Europe (Stability Pact) [SPEECH/01/489]
Memos:
  06.04.01: On the road to Europe : First Stabilisation and Association Agreement to be signed on 9 April 2001 with former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia [MEMO/01/127]
 
DG External Relations:
The EU's Relations with South Eastern Europe
  The EU's actions in support to the Stabilisation & Association Process
  First annual report on the Stabilisation and Association process
  Second annual report on the Stabilisation and Association process [Provides links to individual country reports]
  Interview with Commissioner Christopher Patten after the publication of the Second Stabilisation and Association reports
 
Council of the European Union:
Press Releases:
  11.06.01: Review of the Stabilisation and Association process: Council report
 
The European Commission's Delegation to Serbia and Montenegro
Homepage
  EU in Southeast Europe: Speeches and documents
  The Stabilisation and Association Process
 
Miscellaneous Organisations
 
European Stability Initiative
Homepage
  The Road to Thessaloniki: Cohesion and the Western Balkans
  Assistance, Cohesion and the new Boundaries of Europe: A call for policy reform
 
SEE Online
Homepage
  The European Union and the Balkans: From stabilisation process to Southeastern enlargement
  The Stability Pact for Southeast Europe
  Constitutional quandaries in Southeast Europe
 
Macedoniafaq
Homepage
Our future is in Europe
Road map to Europe: The Stabilisation and Association process
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: a future with Europe
 
Institute of European Affairs
Homepage
The Balkans Project
  Balkans update Issue 1 [March 2002]
  Balkans update Issue 2 [April 2002]
  Balkans update Issue 3 [November 2002]
  Balkans update Issue 4 [March 2003]
 
The European Policy Centre
After the War in Kosovo- Should European Enlargement Include the Balkans? [June 1999]
Does Europe include the Balkans? [February 2000]
From war to EU candidacy [April 2001]
EU challenges in the South East: How to integrate the Balkans and Turkey in the future EU framework [July 2001]
 
The Centre for European Policy Studies
Homepage
The Wider Europe as the European Union's friendly Monroe Doctrine
The Schengen Challenge and its Balkan Dimensions
On the forming and reforming of Stability Pacts: From the Balkans to the Caucus
The Macedonian Crisis and Balkan Security

News Organisations

BBC News Online:
04.11.97: Balkan Summit Europe
07.07.00: Boost for Balkans economy
10.10.00: What now for the Balkans?
24.11.00: Analysis: high hopes at Balkans summit
01.07.01: Balkans challenges for the west

Helen Bower

29 March 2003

Countries in the Western Balkans are on course to join the European Union in the future according to the European Commission's second annual report on the Stabilisation and Association process.

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