Cumulative economic impact of future trade agreements on EU agriculture

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Publication Date 2021
ISBN 978-92-76-27157-4
ISSN 1831-9424
EC KJ-NA-30496-EN-N
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This report investigates the potential effects of 12 free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. For this, it quantifies the cumulated sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand, and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights on the evolution of supply, demand, and farm-gate prices for the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets.

In contrast to a forecast exercise, this analysis compares two variants of a trade liberalisation scenario (conservative and ambitious) to a business-as-usual (baseline) situation in 2030. The study confirms that the analysed free trade agreements have the potential to benefit the EU agri-food sector when considered simultaneously. It also highlights the vulnerability of the beef, sheep meat, poultry, sugar, and rice sectors.

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The report is an update to another report produced in 2016.

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European Commission: Press Release, 26/01/2021: Commission study finds positive impact of trade agreements on agri-food sectors
European Commission: Questions and answers: Economic study on the cumulative effects of trade agreements on the EU agricultural sector (26 January 2021)

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