Cumulative economic impact of upcoming trade agreements on EU agriculture (2024 update)

Abstract:

This study investigates the potential effects of 10 upcoming free trade agreements (FTAs) under the current EU trade agenda. It quantifies the cumulative sectoral impacts in terms of bilateral trade, production, demand and price developments. Moreover, it provides insights into the evolution of supply, demand and farm-gate prices for the most relevant EU agricultural commodity markets. In contrast to a forecast exercise, this analysis compares two variants of a trade liberalisation scenario (conservative and ambitious) with a business-as-usual (baseline) situation in 2032, including an analysis of the effects of the UK trade agenda on EU agri-food trade.

The study confirms that the analysed FTAs have the potential to benefit the EU agri-food sector, especially the dairy, pigmeat, processed food and beverages sectors. It also highlights the vulnerability of the beef, sheep meat, poultry meat, sugar and rice sectors.

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Official

European Commission: Press Release, 22/02/2024: Study confirms that EU trade opens new commercial opportunities for EU agri-food exporters https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_1001

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