Defying Gravity: A critique of estimates of the economic impact of Brexit

Policy Exchange is a UK think tank. It is an educational charity with a mission to develop and promote new policy ideas which deliver better public services, a stronger society and a more dynamic economy.

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The models used to assess the economic impact of Brexit were misleading, according to new analysis published in June 2017 Policy Exchange. At the time, the projections made by the Treasury, OECD and IMF were used by the then government and Remain campaign to argue that the British economy would face a significant and permanent loss of income in the event of a vote to leave.

A careful analysis of the gravity trade economic models used to generate these pessimistic projections suggests that the impact of Brexit on our economy will be much less significant than the economic consensus constructed at the time of the referendum.

• Primary Source

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

In Facts: Analysis, 28.06.17: Was Mark Carney wrong? Don’t bank on it https://infacts.org/was-mark-carney-wrong-dont-bank-on-it/

Website: Economists for Free Trade https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/

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