Energy: a shaping factor for regional stability in the Eastern Mediterranean?

Please note: Each EPRS Study is assigned a DOI (digital object identifier), which is a safe and long term way of ensuring a hyperlink to the full text of this report. However, when ESO creates this record, on occasion the DOI still has not been activated by the EU Bookshop. If you find the source url hyperlink does not work please use the alternative location hyperlink listed as a related url.Since 2010 the Eastern Mediterranean region has become a hotspot of international energy discussions due to a series of gas discoveries in the offshore of Israel, Cyprus and Egypt. To exploit this gas potential, a number of export options have progressively been discussed, alongside new regional cooperation scenarios. Hopes have also been expressed about the potential role of new gas discoveries in strengthening not only the regional energy cooperation, but also the overall regional economic and political stability.

However, initial expectations largely cooled down over time, particularly due to delays in investment decision in Israel and the downward revision of gas resources in Cyprus. These developments even raised scepticism about the idea of the Eastern Mediterranean becoming a sizeable gas-exporting region.

But initial expectations were revived in 2015, after the discovery of the large Zohr gas field in offshore Egypt. Considering its large size, this discovery has reshaped the regional gas outlook, and has also raised new regional cooperation prospects. However, multiple lines of conflict in the region continue to make future Eastern Mediterranean gas activities a major geopolitical issue.

This study seeks to provide a comprehensive analysis of all these developments, with the ultimate aim of assessing the realistic implications of regional gas discoveries for both Eastern Mediterranean countries and the EU.

• Primary Source

European Parliament: Directorate-General for Internal Policies of the Union: Publications available via the EU Bookshop http://bookshop.europa.eu/en/directorate-general-for-internal-policies-of-the-union-cbf.cKABstF7wAAAEjwYYY4e5K/

European Parliament: European Parliamentary Research Service: Study, May 2017: Energy: a shaping factor for regional stability in the Eastern Mediterranean? http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/578044/EXPO_STU(2017)578044_EN.pdf

ESO: Background information: Pipelines and Pipedreams: How the EU can support a regional gas hub in the Eastern Mediterranean (ECFR: Policy Brief, April 2017) http://www.europeansources.info/record/pipelines-and-pipedreams-how-the-eu-can-support-a-regional-gas-hub-in-the-eastern-mediterranean/

ESO: Background information: The New Energy Resources in the Centre-East Mediterranean: Potential Current and Future Geo-Strategic Consequences (IAI Research Papers No.16/32 (November 2016)) http://www.europeansources.info/record/the-new-energy-resources-in-the-centre-east-mediterranean-potential-current-and-future-geo-strategic-consequences/

Istituto Affari Internazionali: IAI Working Papers No.27, October 2016: Energy Resources and Regional Cooperation in the East Mediterranean (IAI Research Papers No.16/27 (October 2016)) http://www.europeansources.info/record/energy-resources-and-regional-cooperation-in-the-east-mediterranean/

ESO: Background information: Cyprus will develop offshore gas irrespective of reunification http://www.europeansources.info/record/cyprus-will-develop-offshore-gas-irrespective-of-reunification/

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