Europe could soon face a different kind of heat

Brussels is often at its best in August: empty but not hollow, quiet but not sedate and warm enough to make life comfortable. On the first two, August 2007 was right on the mark, but the last was way off - the overarching gloom and grey, the ever present rain, and the general depression will probably be remembered for years to come.

But maybe this kind of summer will become standard in Brussels, as will floods in the UK and low temperatures throughout northern Europe - alongside scorching heat and forest fires across southern Europe. Maybe this summer will only be remembered because it was the first of this new pattern, not because it was different.

The weather rarely has much to do with foreign affairs or defence and security, other than providing suitable backdrops or logistic imperatives. But if the extremes of weather such as those experienced this summer persist, both the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and the European Security and Defence Policy may well have to deal with the issue.

Take the fundamental issue of water. Until now Europeans have mostly had the luxury of considering the wasting or scarcity of water as an ideological matter rather than a necessity. Commendably, the EU has been at the forefront of thinking (and preaching) on the importance of conserving water reserves - while on the whole most of its member states have basically had enough water and some to spare. But if southern Europe continues to experience the heat of this summer, coupled with relatively warm and dry winters, then water reserves will become a big problem. The Danube, one of the most important waterways of central and eastern Europe, which feeds off numerous springs and natural sources throughout the many states it traverses, could easily become a source of political tension: if it begins to dry up and shrink, the states that share it now with grace could conceivably begin to fight over it. A fight does not mean a war, but it does mean tension - which could easily lead to security problems.

A warmer, drier Europe may also have to seek new sources of water, either redistributing internally between northern and southern states, or else look for external sources - which basically means looking east, possibly to Russia. Apart from the cost of states having to buy in water, such options also carry huge political implications: no state can afford to be without water, let alone dependent on others for its water resources. It is similar to the energy problem, but even worse: if energy security is about maintaining a way of life, then water security is about maintaining life itself.

Then there is the inverse water problem: the floods. In the UK the army was called in to rescue the people, the houses and the towns that were overwhelmed with water - much as it was the military that came to the rescue when Germany suffered floods last year. But in truth, most European member states cannot afford to use military forces for these problems. The armies are too small and not configured to do these tasks - and in most cases are already deployed outside their states’ territories, on military missions. The more they are called upon for internal security matters, the less it will be possible to use the precious few European military forces that still exist on international issues of importance to the EU.

Such discussions may seem no more than speculation on the back of a bad summer. As such, it is possible simply to pray for a good summer in 2008 and no more. But then again, maybe not. Climate change is here to stay, in one way or another, and it will undoubtedly contribute to the precarious balance of international affairs. Darfur is already recognised as a conflict that started over disappearing water resources and there is every chance it will not be the only one. An EU water war is unlikely, but water as an aim of the CFSP - that must become more than likely.

• Ilana Bet-El is an academic, author and policy adviser based in Brussels.

Brussels is often at its best in August: empty but not hollow, quiet but not sedate and warm enough to make life comfortable. On the first two, August 2007 was right on the mark, but the last was way off - the overarching gloom and grey, the ever present rain, and the general depression will probably be remembered for years to come.

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