Europe, Russia, Ukraine and Energy: Final Warning

Twice in the past five months, the inevitable has provoked surprise. When Russia's Gazprom halted its daily delivery of ninety million cubicmeters of gas to Ukraine on January 1, Europe's political leaders were marginally less astounded than they were by the outbreak of conflict in Georgia in early August. But as in August, the dynamic of escalation - which aweek later had completely cut gas supplies to Europe across Ukraine - caught them completely off guard. The consequences of the agreement signed between Ukraine and Russia on January 19 might also take them by surprise.Ukraine is in no position to implement the terms agreed. By insisting that 'the parties themselves' conclude an agreement, the European Union has virtually guaranteed this result. Energy security in Europe requires a much smarter game.

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