European Business Cycle Indicators – 3rd Quarter 2016

This paper focuses on the Special Topic ''New normal'? – The impact of the financial crisis on business and consumer survey data'. Analysts were enquiring about the possibility that when surveyed, economic agents might have adjusted, i.e. lowered, their underlying reference standard, or 'level of aspiration', to a continued lower level of economic performance in the aftermath of the 2008-12 financial and debt crises.

After are comparing selected confidence indicators and questions of DG ECFIN's Business and Consumer Survey
programme with their respective reference series in a pre-crisis versus postcrisis set-up, the authors concluded that while aggregate potential production was still below pre-crisis levels in many
countries, the level of confidence, the assessment of order books etc. relative to output
growth appeared to be in line with pre-crisis times.

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