European energy and transport: Scenarios on high oil and gas prices

This report examines two scenarios with high oil and gas prices where the price for oil reaches some 100 USD/barrel (in 2005 money) in 2030. The modelling shows the effects of such high prices on the energy system both at the world level and at the EU level.

The world modelling using POLES derives its high price trajectories from assumptions about resource availability and world GDP by region, and it outlines the effects on energy consumption and CO2 emissions at the global level. The more detailed modelling for the EU using PRIMES examines the energy demand and supply repercussions of high oil and gas prices on the EU and its Member States.

The two scenarios have the same oil and coal price trajectories with coal prices rising less than oil prices. They differ from each other as regards the linking of oil and gas prices. The "medium gas and soaring oil prices" case includes some decoupling between oil and gas prices, whereas in the "soaring oil and gas prices" case both prices are linked more closely to each other. These scenarios therefore address also consequences on energy and CO2 of different degrees of linking oil and gas prices. The report provides an update of the cases presented in chapter 2 of the “Scenarios on key drivers” published in 2004.

The results were derived by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens. The projections to 2030 encompass energy demand, transformation, imports and production by fuel and sector. They also give, in the Annex, a breakdown of the main energy and transport variables for each scenario for six different regions: EU-25, EU-15, EU-10 (i.e. the new Member States since 1 May 2004), EU-27 (EU-25 plus Bulgaria and Romania), EU-28 (EU-27 plus Turkey) and Europe-30 (EU-28 plus Norway and Switzerland).

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