European landscapes 2035: four scenarios for internal differentiation

Abstract

This paper presents a narrative set of scenarios on the future use of internal differentiation in the European Union by 2035. The four scenarios outline paradigmatic alternatives for the internal development of the EU: ‘highland Europe’ (uniform integration), ‘mountainous Europe’ (differentiated integration), ‘Lowland Europe’ (uniform disintegration), and ‘archipelago Europe’ (differentiated disintegration). The set of scenarios offers to policymakers, experts, and citizens a useful tool to think about the future of European integration, stimulate an informed debate on desirable visions, threats, opportunities, and strategic choices, and support the design the appropriate institutional, legal, and policy solutions.

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