Four Brexit Scenarios

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Series Details 24.07.18
Publication Date 24/07/2018
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In this commentary feature the author suggested that while an eleventh-hour deal on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU might be hammered out by the end of 2018. But the risks were rising that it would not.

Background information

The UK Government published on the 12 July 2018 its much anticipated White Paper The future relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union.

The Government said that it was advancing a detailed proposal for a principled and practical Brexit. This proposal underpinned the vision set out by the Prime Minister at Lancaster House, in Florence, at Mansion House and in Munich, and in doing so addressed questions raised by the EU in the intervening months – explaining how the relationship would work, what benefits it would deliver for both sides, and why it would respect the sovereignty of the UK as well as the autonomy of the EU.

The White Paper was published following Prime Minister Theresa May hosting a Cabinet away day at Chequers on the 6 July 2018 to discuss and collectively agree the UK’s detailed vision for a new EU-UK relationship after Britain's departure after March 2019.

Chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier tweeted in response 'We will now analyse the #Brexit White Paper w/ Member States & EP, in light of #EUCO guidelines. EU offer = ambitious FTA + effective cooperation on wide range of issues, including a strong security partnership. Looking forward to negotiations with the #UK next week'.

However, in comments made after a General Affairs Council (Article 50) in Brussels on the 20 July 2018 Michel Barnier warned that many issues remained to be clarified. This followed the publication by the European Commission on the 19 July 2018 of a Communication Preparing for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union on 30 March 2019.

See also...

+ LSE European Institute: EuroppBlog, 23.07.18: Brexit: Time for a moratorium?

The UK is set to leave the EU in March 2019, but many of the key issues remained unresolved and there was now perceived to be a very real prospect of the country leaving without a deal in place. For Helmut K Anheier, the answer was not a second referendum given another vote would do little to resolve the division that currently existed in the UK over Brexit. Rather, he proposed a moratorium on Brexit, lasting up to five years, which would allow both the UK and the EU to fully get to grips with the process.

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Related Links
LSE European Institute: EuroppBlog, 03.08.18: A paler shade of grey? It is hard to see how any in-between version of Brexit can prevail
In Facts, 29.07.18: Cabinet to 'bury' no deal plans so people don’t panic
ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union
LSE European Institute: EuroppBlog, 23.07.18: Brexit: Time for a moratorium?
UK in a Changing Europe: Blog, 27.07.18: No deal will bring a chaotic Brexit to the fore
Welsh Brexit: Blog, 30.10.18: A Canada v Norway second vote: a way out of impasse?

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