Globalization, Trade and Populism in Germany. Analyzing the effects of trade exposure on voting behavior in the 2013 and 2017 German federal elections

Summary:

This rise of trade skepticism, as well as, other general anti-globalization sentiments across the western world is reflected in several recent international events. In Germany, this is most closely linked to the formation and subsequent rise of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party. Having been founded only four years prior in 2013, the AfD managed to garner 12.6 percent during the 2017 German federal elections, making it the third largest party in the Bundestag and the first time since the second world war, a right-wing populist party in Germany managed to get elected into the parliament at all.

This begs the question: How does economic globalization, and trade in particular, influence German voting behavior? In writing this thesis, the author attempts to answer this question. Having researched the current academic literature, the author finds that the effect of trade exposure on voting behavior in Germany has only been studied up to the year 2009. Consequently, it is crucially missing out on this decade’s significant changes in both, German political landscape and public trade perception. The author of this thesis, therefore, has constructed his own empirical data set, containing information on the 2013 and 2017 German federal elections, to bridge the current empirical data gap past the 2009 threshold. The author analyzes this data set, running simple linear regression models to gauge the impact trade exposure has had on voting behavior at the German electoral district level. After researching the underlying economic theory and empirical evidence from literature, the author’s hypothesis going into this analysis is that electoral districts with a higher measure of trade exposure (measured via Chinese import penetration) will show a greater propensity to vote for the AfD, Germany’s anti-globalization oriented right-wing populist party.

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