Have business cycles become more synchronised?

Abstract:

Will further integration make business cycles in EMU countries more similar? This article answers the question by analysing to what extent business cycles in US and German states have become more synchronised and by examining whether synchronisation in OECD countries is affected by trade intensity and exchange rate stability. Using long-run data for the US we find only mixed evidence for synchronisation. However, post-war data for Germany suggest that business cycles behave more similarly over time. The evidence for OECD countries is mixed: trade intensity has led to more, and exchange rate stability to less, synchronisation.

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