| Author (Person) | Adarov, Amat |
|---|---|
| Publisher | Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies |
| Series Title | Background Study |
| Series Details | 15.04.15 |
| Publication Date | 15/04/2015 |
| Content Type | Report |
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Executive summary [extract]: In 2015, the military conflict in the Donbas region, the erosion of incomes on account of galloping inflation and the unrelenting collapse of trade and investment will plunge Ukraine’s economy into deep recession for the second year running. Even under the assumption that the current ceasefire holds, an economic recovery can hardly be expected before 2017. Dismal recovery prospects, an ever-weakening currency and massive fiscal deficits have translated into insolvency of the government. Negotiations over restructuring of privately held sovereign external debt have been launched and are to be seen as part of the new IMF ‘rescue’ package approved in March 2015. Economic stabilisation and return to sustainable and inclusive economic growth will be impossible without a resolution of the military conflict, which should be the first priority for the policy-makers. Restoration of normal economic activities in the affected territories will also require massive public investment, and the EU could potentially play a crucial role here – ideally by designing a sort of ‘Marshall Plan’ for Ukraine. Under the crucial assumption that peace is restored, wiiw has elaborated a number of policy recommendations which would be important to follow to reach the above goals. |
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| Source Link | http://wiiw.ac.at/how-to-stabilise-the-economy-of-ukraine-dlp-3562.pdf |
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| Countries / Regions | Ukraine |
