How will the Russia-Ukraine war affect Poland’s rule of law dispute with the EU?

Summary:

The imperative to maintain European unity in the face of Russian aggression has put the political establishment in the European Union (EU) under pressure to deescalate its rule of law conflict with Poland’s ruling party, Law and Justice.

The author writes that the Polish government appears willing to compromise as long as it does not have to abandon the core of its judicial reform programme. But the vagueness of the European Commission’s reconstruction plan ‘milestones’, and the fact that payments will only be released in tranches, mean that it can still use the COVID-19 recovery fund as a conditionality tool.

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