Kingmakers threaten Fogh Rasmussen’s reign

When Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Danish prime minister, decided to call an early election to be held on Tuesday (13 November), he thought it would be straight-forward and that he would get a third term easily. He probably will. But he will need to tread carefully to win the blessing of the New Alliance (NA) party.

The NA party, launched in May, could be the king-maker. Although the party, founded by Syrian-born Naser Khader and MEPs Anders Samuelsen and Gitte Seeberg, has indicated that it will support Fogh Rasmussen’s two-party coalition, it has also hinted that the government will have to show that it is fit for the job.

For Fogh Rasmussen’s Liberal Party and its coalition partner, the Conservative People’s Party, the timing to call an early election should be perfect, although it is less than three years since the last general election held in February 2005. Denmark has seen 15 months of economic growth and it has the lowest unemployment rate in more than 30 years. And the withdrawal of troops from Iraq earlier this year was seen by many as the last electoral obstacle for the Liberal Party.

Fogh Rasmussen’s main opponent in the election is Helle Thorning-Schmidt, the leader of the Social Democrats and a former MEP, who promised at her party’s conference two years ago that she would beat the current prime minister. But the Social Democrats, who during their campaign have focused on welfare, such as the right of the elderly to a daily bath, are still lagging behind the Liberals in opinion polls and along with their partners would get only around 40% of the votes. Fogh Rasmussen’s likely coalition would get close to 50%.

But the prime minister must tread carefully on immigration in order to win the support of the NA as well as keeping happy the far-right Danish People’s Party (DF), which has backed his coalition government over the last six years.

According to Kaj Mieritz of Cepos, a Copenhagen-based think-tank, the NA’s campaign for a more ‘humane’ immigration policy contrasts starkly with the DF’s tough anti-immigration stance.

For Mieritz, the Liberal Party’s reliance on both NA and DF would mean "that Danish politics will continue as it has done for some time with a very unstable ‘majority’ government".

On the environment, the Liberal-Conservative coalition also has to walk a fine line if it is to win the support of both the DF and the NA. While the DF is sceptical on environmental issues and is largely held responsible for Denmark’s lack of progress on environment protection, the NA’s green rhetoric is winning votes from both the left and the right of the political spectrum.

The EU and the possibility of organising a referendum on the recently agreed Lisbon treaty have barely been discussed during the three-week election campaign. Mieritz said that all political parties "apart from the June Movement, which is against anything to do with the EU, decided to kick it [the Lisbon treaty] into a corner and leave that debate for later".

But recent polls have shown that support in Denmark for the Union has never been stronger - in stark contrast to some years ago when the Danes used to be among the most Eurosceptical EU citizens.

Unless Danish voters take their cue from neighbouring Norway and Sweden, whose previous governments were ousted despite strong economic performance, Fogh Rasmussen is likely to stay on as prime minister. But he will face some tough negotiations in the coming weeks and his third term could prove much harder than the previous two.

Danish parties

• Liberal Party

Leader: Anders Fogh Rasmussen

Key campaign issues: freedom of speech, better welfare for the elderly and children;

• Conservative People’s Party

Leader: Bendt Bendtsen

Key campaign issues: education, increased focus on anti-terrorism, countering the radicalisation of young Muslims;

• Danish People’s Party

Leader: Pia Kjærsgaard

Key issues: better integration of immigrants, no halal meals at schools, referendum on the Lisbon treaty;

• Social Democratic Party

Leader: Helle Thorning-Schmidt

Key issues: no tax relief, more welfare;

• Socialist People’s Party

Leader: Villy Søvndal

Key issues: more health workers, new wind farms every two years, lower public transport costs;

• Social Liberal Party

Leader: Margrethe Vestager

Key issues: more green taxes, lower income taxes, end to the ‘24-year-old rule’ governing marriage with foreign nationals;

• New Alliance

Leader: Naser Khader

Key issues: flat income tax of 40%, closure of asylum-seeker centres, making it easier for asylum-seekers to work, green taxes, increased development aid;

• Unity List

Leader: None

Key issues: more civil servants, better pay, 100% sustainable energy within 25 years, amnesty for rejected asylum-seekers.

When Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Danish prime minister, decided to call an early election to be held on Tuesday (13 November), he thought it would be straight-forward and that he would get a third term easily. He probably will. But he will need to tread carefully to win the blessing of the New Alliance (NA) party.

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