Laying the groundwork for the new millennium

Date: 21/12/1995

THE past year has been a period of self-analysis for the European Union. Like any adult approaching a 40th birthday, it has been time to take stock. Reminiscences, as actual achievements are measured against earlier ambitions, were inevitable. But the Union, despite its uneven development, has not wallowed in nostalgia. New ambitions have also been set.

The past and the future met in Sicily in early June. Under a Mediterranean sky which started overcast but soon cleared to a bright blue, the Union solemnly celebrated the 40th anniversary of the launch of the process which eventually resulted in the EU's basic constitution, the Treaty of Rome.

The pomp and ceremony took place in Messina, the home town of the then Italian Foreign Minister Professor Gaetano Martino, who hosted what became the first Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) organised by the EU. It was there that six countries laid the foundations for a unique venture which now has 15 fully signed-up members, with a dozen more clamouring to join.

The speeches inevitably paid tribute to the vision of those early enthusiasts and to the tense international political climate in which they were launching their ambitious new venture. Many also acknowledged that while the fundamental original raison d'être of ensuring peace between two of the continent's main protagonists - Germany and France - was still valid, more was now needed to stimulate enthusiasm for the activities in which the EU was engaged.

The following day, in an interesting symbolic gesture, the gathering of assembled ministers, dignatories, their retinues and the media transferred their operations to Taormina. A few kilometres up the winding coastal road, the change of venue underlined that the Union was not only seeking to recharge its batteries, but was also embarking on the search for a potent formula which would equip it for the challenges of the late Nineties rather than those of four decades earlier.

The mantle fell on Spanish European Affairs Minister Carlos Westendorp, who for the following six months was to chair the Reflection Group reassessing the Maastricht Treaty. The exercise was one of the most thorough undertaken by the Union, as members examined the Union's shortcomings and considered options for putting these right.

With EU governments themselves divided over the kind of Union that they want, there was never any expectation that the members of the Reflection Group would agree on the required remedies. But there was general consensus that next year's IGC should make the EU's decision-making more efficient, bring the Union closer to its citizens, strengthen its ability to act on the world stage and enable it to tackle new internal challenges, such as organised crime and illegal immigration.

The work was endorsed by last weekend's Madrid European summit. It agreed that the IGC process would start on 29 March in Turin and hopefully be concluded about a year later. Allowing 12 to 18 months for the changes to be ratified by national and European parliaments and in various referenda, the Union could see itself with a new treaty by 1 January 1999.

That date would coincide with the introduction in some member states of the new single currency, the Euro. For the Madrid summit also set out other ambitions for the Union. It confirmed the general determination, with only the UK and Denmark reluctant, to introduce a single currency.

It did so by agreeing on its name, setting out the route by which it would reach its destination in just over three years' time, and the ways in which it would be increasingly used until it became a fact of life in people's pockets from 2002 onwards.

The Union also laid down further targets at Madrid. The lengthy process which could eventually see its membership expand to almost 30 countries is now under way. In parallel with the route marked out for the single currency, EU leaders agreed for the first time on most of the stages which will have to be met for the next and subsequent enlargements.

The formula agreed managed to bridge the gap between those such as Germany, which want early negotiations with countries like Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic and others, with one eye on the Baltics, who argue that all applications should be treated equally at the outset.

In effect, Madrid managed to defer that debate until the end of 1997 when a choice will have to be made on the basis of a dozen European Commission reports on the individual applications into the ability of each to meet its Union obligations. That decision will be made just a few months after the end of the IGC and, with enlargement hanging over the Maastricht review like a sword of Damocles, will force the negotiators to streamline EU decision-making, almost certainly with more majority voting.

The Madrid summit and Spain's six-month EU presidency in general was a welcome boost for the Union, which had started the year almost totally becalmed. A disappointing German EU presidency, dominated by a domestic general election, had handed over to a France which was almost entirely focused on its own presidential contest in May.

Domestic priorities had major EU repercussions, as most business was put on hold and for almost two months no Union ministerial meetings took place. Not even the luxurious setting of the Cannes summit in June could lift the lethargic pace set by France, whose single major achievement was to unblock the customs union with Turkey.

But the French elections cast a longer shadow over the Union. The departure of President François Mitterrand after 14 years in office raised serious doubts about the future vitality of the major post-war motor of European integration: the Franco-German alliance.

Those doubts have not lessened in recent months. President Jacques Chirac's ability to blow hot and cold on the Union, his controversial nuclear testing programme and his criticism of Schengen all sorely tested the Franco-German entente. Whatever he may privately feel, German Chancellor Helmut Kohl has been judiciously careful in his public comments to indicate mutual understanding remained.

But as the end of the year demonstrated, there is more meeting of minds on the Union between the Christian Democrat Kohl and the Spanish Socialist Premier Felipe Gonzalez than there is between the German chancellor and the centre-right French president. It was Gonzalez's careful and energetic preparation, and Kohl's political weight, which pushed through the key decisions at the Madrid summit.

For the Union as a whole, 1995 was a year of intense activity in its dealings with the rest of world as it concluded agreements, or opened up new opportunities, with countries as far apart as the Americas (north and south), Africa, Asia and Eastern Europe. That energy contrasted with the relative lack of progress on internal policies, although the prospect of enlargement is now forcing the Union to reassess core areas like agricultural, regional, social and internal market policies.

One noticeable shift on internal policies during the year was the new emphasis given to tackling previously largely-neglected areas like the fight against drugs, organised crime and illegal immigration. Successful answers to these new challenges are now considered essential if the Union is to rekindle a sense of popularity among the public.

So far, the Union has been more adept at asking the questions than providing the answers on such issues. Until it can come up with solutions, the public is likely to remain unenthusiastic. Paradoxically, as the lengthening list of applicant countries demonstrated over the past year, the Union's popularity with non-member governments which wish to join remains as high as ever.