Major new Brexit poll shows voters swinging towards Remain

Channel 4 Television in the United Kingdom commissioned in the second half of 2018 a survey from Survation of attitudes to Brexit across the whole country since the June 2016 referendum. The results were presented and discussed in a programme Brexit: What the Nation Really Thinks on the 5 November 2018 with politicians and a studio audience.

Further information

According to the poll most UK voters would vote Remain if the EU referendum were held again. Some 54% of people said they would stay in the EU if the 2016 referendum were held tomorrow – when those who refused to vote or answered 'don’t know' were removed.

Survation interviewed 20,000 people online across the UK from 20 October to 2 November 2018 in the biggest ever independent Brexit opinion poll.

The survey suggested voters were sharply divided on what Theresa May should do next if she was unable to hammer out a Brexit deal by 29 March 2019, the date when Britain was due to exit the bloc.

Some 35% of people said Britain should stay in the EU in a 'no-deal' scenario, and almost exactly the same proportion – 36% – said the UK should leave without a deal. Only 19% thought Brexit should be delayed to allow more time to negotiate.

A majority of people asked said they were open to the idea of a second referendum if the UK and EU agreed a deal on the terms of Brexit, depending on the choices offered on the ballot paper.

Voters across Britain did not seem to be panicking about the prospect of Brexit leading to a United Ireland or Scottish independence.

Some 44% of people said they were concerned about Northern Ireland leaving the UK, while a similar number of people – 42% – said they were not concerned.

In the case of Scotland, equal proportions of voters said they were concerned and not concerned about independence.

• Primary Source

Channel Four: Programme, 05.11.18: Brexit: What the Nation Really Thinks https://www.channel4.com/programmes/brexit-what-the-nation-really-thinks/on-demand/67901-001

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

Economic and Social Research Council: What UK Thinks: Europe http://www.europeansources.info/record/what-uk-thinks-europe/

UCL: European Institute: UCL Brexit Blog, 26.10.18: People’s Vote analysis: 40% of the public up for grabs by either side http://www.europeansources.info/record/peoples-vote-analysis-40-of-the-public-up-for-grabs-by-either-side/

The Guardian, 06.11.18: [Opinion]: Brexit relies on the will of the people. What if we don’t know what that is? https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/06/brexit-will-of-the-people-channel-4-poll-remain

Politico, 06.11.18: UK poll predicts 8-point victory for Remain in second Brexit vote https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-poll-predicts-swing-to-remain-in-second-brexit-vote/

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