Modelling of feed consumption in the European Union

Livestock production constitutes one of the largest agricultural sectors in Europe. In 2007, animal feed manufacturers in the EU produced 150 Mt of industrial compound feed. Fully 60 % of all grains produced in the EU are used in livestock feeds.

Industrial compound feed is manufactured using a variety of raw materials that are specially selected to meet predetermined performance objectives in terms of the animals’ nutritional needs. The raw materials used come from a wide range of sources. The feed industry therefore constitutes an important market for cereals, oilseeds and protein crops in the EU. Some raw materials used in livestock feeds are obtained from by-products of the food industry. Others ingredients, of which domestic EU production is insufficient to meet these needs, are imported from third countries.

Livestock producers and feed manufacturers are constantly striving to meet the nutritional requirements of animals for the best possible cost and therefore frequently substitute some types of feed ingredients for others. The price of most of the ingredients is therefore closely related to their energy or protein content.

Given this context, the DG Agri is seeking to develop a quantitative modelling system that allows the user to estimate levels of animal demand for the raw materials (in particular cereals and oilmeals) used in both manufactured industrial feeds and on-farm feeds.

The aim of the study is to analyse feed consumption by livestock in the EU and based on this analysis, to develop a quantitative model that allows the user to estimate annual demand for animal feed concentrates in the EU as a whole, in each individual Member State and for each major livestock category. The model should also take account of raw material prices and availability levels, and will use data on livestock numbers and livestock production (meat, milk, and eggs) to carry out simulations to generate estimated demand values for past crop marketing years and forecast for current and future crop years. Tallage and CÉRÉOPA have developed the method and tools to meet these needs. Our model uses linear programming to evaluate consumption of feed concentrates in industrial animal feeds; to estimate onfarm consumption of feed concentrates, we have developed an original system that is based on the animals’ energy requirements and uses linear regression.

Our modelling system, FeedMod, has been developed to allow the user to estimate the consumption of raw materials in the EU by industrial compound feeds and on-farm feeds in each EU Member State. FeedMod, developed by Tallage and Céréopa, allows the user to estimate tonnages of raw materials consumed by the livestock sector in Europe. It is not a statistical tool: it has been created with the aim of producing forecasts and historical estimates by species and by Member State. It can be used to compare different scenarios and to test out different hypotheses. It allows the user to make inter-crop year comparisons and to analyse the consequences of past evolutions. With a view to simplicity of use, FeedMod has been developed in such a way as to keep required input data to a minimum. The user should nevertheless be vigilant when inputting data. Lastly, a periodic update of FeedMod’s parameters (every 4 to 5 years) is highly recommended when FeedMod is envisaged for long-term usage.

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