None of the above: what impact will the rise of anti-EU parties have on the next European Parliament?

Open Europe published a new briefing, projecting the make-up of the European Parliament 2014-2019. It estimated that anti-EU or protest parties of various forms could win as much as 31% of the vote, up from 25% in 2009, and 218 out of 751 seats - a gain of 54 seats compared to the 2009-14 parliament.

However, the main effect of this could, ironically, be to make the next European Parliament even more integrationist by crowding out the reformist middle. The result could also spell trouble for David Cameron's reform agenda, since the European Parliament would have an effective veto over some of the key items on his EU reform agenda. Critically, Open Europe projected that the share of MEPs explicitly dedicated to free market policies could also fall - from 242 (31.6%) to 206 (27.4%).

• Primary Source

ESO: Background information: European Parliament: Election, May 2014 http://www.europeansources.info/record/european-parliament-election-may-2014/

Open Europe: Press Release, 28.04.14: New Open Europe briefing: None of the above - what impact will the rise of anti-EU parties have on the next European Parliament? http://www.openeurope.org.uk/Article?id=19919

ESO: Background information: The Eurosceptic surge and how to respond to it http://www.europeansources.info/record/the-eurosceptic-surge-and-how-to-respond-to-it/

ESO: Background information: Le Pen launches plan to unite the far right http://www.europeansources.info/record/le-pen-launches-plan-to-unite-the-far-right/

openDemocracy: Can Europe Make It?, 01.05.14: The divided house of anti-Europe http://www.opendemocracy.net/can-europe-make-it/cas-mudde/divided-house-of-antieurope

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