|Author (Person)||Ajelli, Marco, Barone, Antonio, Bodina, Annalisa, Cereda, Danilo, Crottogini, Lucia, Diurno, Giulio, Gramegna, Maria, Guzzetta, Giorgio, Marziano, Valentina, Melegaro, Alessia, Merler, Stefano, Poletti, Piero, Tirani, Marcello, Trentini, Filippo|
|Publisher||European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)|
|Series Details||Volume 25, Number 12|
|Publication Date||March 2020|
|Content Type||Journal Article|
Sustained coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission is ongoing in Italy, with 7,375 reported cases and 366 deaths by 8 March 2020. We provide a model-based evaluation of patient records from Lombardy, predicting the impact of an uncontrolled epidemic on the healthcare system. It has the potential to cause more than 250,039 (95% credible interval (CrI): 147,717–459,890) cases within 3 weeks, including 37,194 (95% CrI: 22,250–67,632) patients requiring intensive care. Aggressive containment strategies are required.
|Subject Tags||Diseases, Public Health|
|Countries / Regions||Italy|