Risk reduction in the EMS? Evidence from trends in exchange rate properties

Abstract:

The performance of the European Monetary System is still being debated. On the subject of exchange rate characteristics it has been claimed that evidence from looking at the statistical properties of the exchange rate distribution indicates an increased risk for agents. Others argue that the apparent success of the EMS is illusory, as it has not performed better than other currencies over the same period. The authors analyse these propositions by searching for trends in risk of EMS exchange rates and comparing them to outside benchmarks. They find properties indicating decreasing risk and these results also hold when structural breaks are considered. Moreover, this decline seems to be faster than for world benchmarks.