Soft Power vs. Hard Power? The Transatlantic Military Capabilities Gap and the Future of US-European Security Relations

The capabilities question will be a key factor shaping the future of institutions like NATO. Only if the Europeans have capable armies, countries like the U.S. will continue to rely on Europe as a strong partner in world affairs and respect their assistance and also their criticisms. Should Europe fail, the U.S. would increasingly do what it has already been doing: searching temporary alliances with selected, capable partners that meet its requirements. This behavior of the U.S. has become apparent in the aftermath of the September 11th, 2001 terrorist attacks on the U.S. Although NATO called out Article 5 for the first time in its history only one day later, the effect turned out to be only of political value rather than military value. For the high-intensity warfare operations in Afghanistan, NATO as a whole did not play any role. They were rather bilateral arrangements between the U.S. and selected NATO partners as well as other temporary allies such as Pakistan or the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan itself. Operation Enduring Freedom, the search for those believed to be responsible for the September 11th attacks, could have been led by NATO, had it had the appropriate tools and capabilities. This comes despite the fact that many observers said that NATO’s mission did not include such a scenario. Times change, missions change and so must alliances.

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