Spain’s passion for the Union cooled by economic hardship

Date: 30/11/1995

THIS year, Spain celebrated its 9th anniversary in the European Union and Socialist Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez his 13th year in power.

But now, 20 years after General Franco's death, Spaniards are becoming increasingly sceptical about the viability of the two projects that have occupied the government during most of its democratic period.

The enthusiasm Spain had for entering the EU is cooling off and the word 'European' has in many places the same sour taste that the word 'afrancesado'(French-like) had at the end of the 18th century.

Society's confidence in Gonzalez has also suffered during his years in power. He won the general election in 1993, but without an absolute majority for the first time in a decade. For the last two years, he has governed only with the parliamentary support of the Catalan nationalists of Convergencia i Unio (CiU).

Over the past 12 months, a series of corruption scandals and allegations of government involvement in a dirty war against the ETA terrorist group have seriously damaged his credibility, even though as yet there is still no proof to inculpate him.

Nonetheless, the scandals have caused CiU President Jordi Pujol to withdraw his support for Gonzalez and to force general elections to be moved to next March, ahead of the planned June 1997 date.

Few doubt that Pujol's move to withdraw his support from the government was designed to emphasise his differences with the Socialist government before the autonomous elections in Catalonia earlier this month. But the rupture between the two politicians has aggravated the government crisis, resulting in the rejection of the government's budget proposal for 1996.

Gonzalez blames the scandals on a conspiracy against national institutions. But even if such a conspiracy could be proved, it seems too late for him to win back any credibility without going through elections. The opposition Partido Popular (PP), led by José Maria Aznar, has been calling for a general election ever since the last one in 1993.

Since then, Aznar has tried to keep his party calm after victories in last year's European Parliament election and municipal elections last May which have made them hungry for power. But he has not been able to rally other opposition parties behind a motion of censure of Gonzalez's government.

Aznar's political accomplishment has been to modernise the Spanish right, divided after General Franco's death, and to transform his party into one of a centrist, Christian Democrat persuasion. But that has not been enough to make Spaniards give Aznar their confidence, especially in Catalonia and the Basque country, where centre-right nationalism limits the PP's development, or in other regions, as in Andalucía or in Extremadura, bastions of Socialism.

Most Spaniards expect Aznar to win the largest number of votes in the next general election. But not all polls predict an absolute majority victory for his party, and prevailing wisdom is that Aznar will not be able to lead a coalition with the nationalist Basque and Catalan parties. So far, he has not even dared to approach them. Gonzalez has more contact with the Catalan and Basques, and would more easily form a coalition with them, ruling as a clique of minority parties.

The Spanish watch astonished as the mountain of judicial prosecutions and accusations between Gonzalez and Aznar grows daily. But they are more worried by a crisis that has cut their buying power and left 22&percent; of the population unemployed.

Many wait for Gonzalez's solutions to the economic crisis, and do not seem affected by the scandals affecting the Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) or the government. Others prefer to preach that the time has come to turn the page on Gonzalez' Socialism. They consider him at least indirectly responsible for the economic crisis and political chaos.

In the middle of the confusion, Spain is hosting the EU presidency for the second time. The government's efforts are focused on making its country's term at the helm a success in foreign policy - the field that gave Gonzalez most of his prestige.

But his time at the tiller of EU affairs has also come during the season of Spain's biggest disenchantment with the Union. For the Spanish economy has awakened from the European dream with a hangover.

International competition and demands from Brussels have opened wounds in sectors like agriculture, fisheries, shipbuilding, steel and mining. Not a single poll puts Spain in the group of countries that will be able to jump to a single currency in 1999. Three devaluations of the peseta in two years, a rigorous economic policy aimed at deficit cutting and reducing inflation, and an increase in economic growth may have added some light to the gloomy décor of Spain's economic theatre.

But the Spaniards still cannot see the effect of that in their pockets. In addition, the government has failed to explain properly how it defended Spanish interests in Brussels in cases like the turbot war against Canada or the fisheries and farm agreement with Morocco.

Yet despite the public's growing disillusionment with the EU, Gonzalez and his ministers charge full steam ahead with their European policies unchanged.

The corruption scandals and internal political problems that follow them, even to press conferences in Brussels, have not affected their decisions on European policy and they seem not to have affected the Spanish presidency.

Gonzalez has not lost a centimetre of his faith in the European construction. He is a convinced European and will remain one, no matter how wild the swings of public opinion are on Europe.

In one crucial area, Gonzalez' determinedly pro-Union stand still commands widespread support. Public opinion is in favour of a single European currency partly because most people have not thought about the efforts they will have to make to take Spain into monetary union.

Straining to meet economic convergence criteria, the government has tightened its belt, freezing salaries and cutting public spending. Spaniards feel it and complain bitterly, but most have not yet connected it with monetary union.

The country's own interior economic crisis is so dire that it seems excuse enough for drastic budgetary measures. Basque steelworkers, the fishermen in Andalucía and the dairy farmers of Astoria - suffering from major unemployment due to restructuring across the Union in their sectors - see the culprit as further away, in Brussels. They consider it just that the Union gives them structural fund money in compensation. But city dwellers, for the most part, see only Spain's crisis.

At the EU summit in Madrid in two weeks' time, Spain will close its presidency with more successes than either of its two immediate predecessors, France and Germany.

The first steps towards Maastricht Treaty reform, the entry into force of the Union's Mediterranean policy, a trade agreement with the Latin American nations of Mercosur, the relaunch of relations with the United States and agreement on the scenario for moving to a single currency, are all accomplishments that both those European powers would have been proud to call their own.

But even such successes will not change Spanish public opinion on Europe. They will ignore the foreign policy initiatives and concentrate on the Spanish ministers' failures to win every trade dispute on agriculture or fisheries. Spaniards only like Europe when it doesn't hurt. And the successes of the EU presidency have not, and are unlikely to, change public opinion about Gonzalez himself.

The prime minister has declared he is waiting until after the Madrid summit to announce whether he will retire or fight on at the next elections. His advisors swear he has not yet made that decision yet.

Most party members want him to stay and if his only possible successor, Foreign Minister Javier Solana, leaves to become NATO secretary-general, the party will not let Gonzalez go.

But even if both Solana and Gonzalez were to disappear from the national political scene, the Socialist Party would not change its European policy, because it would not have time. It would instead devote a great part of its energy reconstructing unity inside the party.

The party members talked about as possible successors to Solana, such as Josep Borrell, currently transport and telecommunications minister, or Cristina Alberdi, minister for social affairs, are relatively new and do not yet have enough weight in the party machinery, but could be compromise candidates.

Neither has pronounced a policy on Europe, but are considered to be generally pro-Union and have caused no waves in Brussels during their term at the top of the Council of Ministers' tables.

Most believe the question of who should succeed Gonzalez will not arise if Solana leaves for NATO, believing Gonzalez would stay on.

The PP has never been able to seriously attack the Socialist government on European affairs issues, although they can accuse Gonzalez of using the EU presidency to get himself photographed with world leaders instead of resolving Spain's economic problems around the negotiating table in Brussels.

But if Aznar comes to power in March, he is expected to leave Spain's current European policy virtually intact, with changes only in nuance and tone - when facing audiences in Madrid, for example, he could be expected to explain European policy in a more nationalistic tone, assuring them he is fighting for Spain's interests in Brussels.

The sacrifices Spaniards must now make to catch the European train headed for 1999 will be equally difficult regardless of whether Gonzalez or Aznar is in power. They are written in the Maastricht Treaty, and they won't help brighten the black scenario of Spanish domestic policy.