Stalemate over EU’s Kosovo office

Date: 15/01/1998

By Mark Turner

AS TENSIONS rise in the Albanian-dominated Kosovo province in Yugoslavia, concern is mounting about what is fast becoming Europe's most volatile flashpoint.

Recent clashes between Albanian students and Serb riot police, increasingly nationalist rhetoric from Belgrade and regional capital Pristina, and escalating violence by the Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) all amount to a serious headache for the UK in its role as new holder of the Union presidency.

"In regional terms, Kosovo is very much a priority for us," said a British Foreign Office spokesman. "We will continue to urge dialogue to take place."

There has been almost total silence from the Serbian capital Belgrade on a central element of the Union's Kosovo strategy: the establishment of an EU information office in Pristina. A Union approach to Yugoslavia last November was received "politely", according to one European Commission official, but since then there has been no further discussion. Few EU diplomats expect any imminent change.

When approached, the Yugoslavian mission to the EU refused to discuss the Kosovo office, insisting that it was "an entirely internal matter" which the Belgrade authorities considered "strictly their own preoccupation".

Such reticence highlights the extreme sensitivity of anything Kosovan, not least because ethnic unrest there was one of the sparks which lit the Yugoslavian tinder-box in 1991.

The southern region of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) borders Albania and Macedonia (FYROM), and contains nine ethnic Albanians for every Serbian. This imbalance is made worse by Kosovo's disproportionately high birth rate: its population rose by 17% in 1994, compared with 3% in the rest of Serbia.

Under the old Yugoslav federal system, Kosovo enjoyed almost as much autonomy as republics like Slovenia and Croatia, a fact which grated badly on Serbian nerves. According to one Yugoslav writer, Milutin Milenkovich, "The autonomous provinces had the right of veto on all decisions on a republican level. Belgrade did not have even similar, let alone equal rights in relation to decisions taken by the provincial government agencies. The central government of Serbia was actually deprived of sovereignty."

In 1989, however, then Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic responded to rising Kosovan nationalism by withdrawing the region's autonomy and clamping down on its civil rights.

This fast became a bone of Yugoslav-wide contention (particularly in Slovenia), stoking fires already burning due to economic hardship. The rest is history.

Almost a decade later, it is hard to see how things have improved. Although Belgrade and Pristina agreed in 1996 on a formula to allow Kosovan Albanians access to Yugoslav educational facilities, the agreement has yet to be implemented. And reports of state-sponsored torture were even raised publicly by the EU in a recent statement.

Although Serbia gave a much-needed boost to Yugoslav President Milosevic by electing his follower Milan Milutinovic as Serb president in December, Belgrade remains insecure and wary of destabilising influences.

Serbian relations with Brussels have also sunk to a new low since the EU decided to suspend trade privileges for Yugoslavia in 1998 while renewing them for Croatia and Bosnia - although it helps that this time around Russia purports to support the western European line.

Treading carefully, the Commission is keen to stress that its office would in no way count as a formal delegation, and would fully respect Yugoslavia's territorial integrity.

"We do not lend any support to Kosovan calls for independence," said a Commission official. "We would encourage dialogue, but the message we would give is that independence is not realistic."

Nonetheless, the UK insists that the Union "supports the highest degree of autonomy short of independence". Although it is unclear what that really means, the clear implication is that the West (rather unrealistically) would like a restoration of Kosovo's 1989 status.

London says it is planning some high-level visits to the region and will continue to push for the EU office, but refuses to give any further details at present.

Should the UK fail to quieten things down, the consequences could be severe. Unrest could escalate as Kosovans hold their own elections in parallel with Albania in March, and any violence could easily result in large refugee movements.

If, as feared, Albanians flee to Macedonia, long-standing ethnic tensions in Skopje would be heightened. A Macedonian nationalist backlash would not be well received by Greece.

The Balkan disease, it appears, is still virulent. That is why many feel the creation of a Union bureau is so important. "An EU presence could have a de-escalating effect," said a Commission official.