Survey results: how does Brexit impact on EU initiatives and politicians?

There is a lot of uncertainty about how Brexit will impact on the EU’s projects and its high-level politicians. Various officials work to spin the narrative so that they leverage Brexit to back their agendas. But will this work?

In the aftermath of the referendum in June 2016 which will lead to the United Kingdom negotiating to leave the EU, VoteWatch Europee surveyed just over 100 EU experts (working in the EU institutions, mass media, thinks tanks, national civil servants in the Council and NGOs) to say how they thought the Brexit referendum would affect the EU.

The main points raised were:

+ Another referendum for EU Membership is unlikely, but if this were to happen the Netherlands is seen as the most likely Member State to hold it

+ France and Germany are seen as the most influential after Brexit

+ The Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden are seen as most likely to lose influence in the Council

+ The 3 Presidents of the European institutions, Juncker, Tusk and Schulz are likely to stay on until 2019, (the biggest divide of opinions is in case of Schulz)

+ TTIP is the most negatively affected EU initiative by Brexit, seconded by REFIT, while economic integration is likely to be easier

• Primary Source

ESO: In Focus: Brexit - The United Kingdom and the European Union http://www.europeansources.info/record/brexit-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union/

ESO: Find more information on the reaction of EU institutions to the UK referendum results http://www.europeansources.info/advSearchLink?keyword=reaction%20brexit%20european%20institutions%20&searchOption=all

ESO: Key Source: Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) http://www.europeansources.info/record/transatlantic-trade-and-investment-partnership-ttip/

EurActiv, 12.08.16: Survey: Juncker likely to stay in office until 2019 http://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/survey-juncker-likely-to-stay-in-office-until-2019/

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